World Grain - July 2007 - 29
FEATURE: DEMAND GROWING IN A VOLATILE MARKET
doing something right
when it comes to economic policy in South
Africa."
He wanted the rest
of the world to follow
this example. "We
would very much like
De Villiers
the developed world
to stop subsidizing its farmers," he said.
"We'd like to earn a living."
COSTLY SHIPPING
Diego Luis Barbero, director of Switzerland-based Noble Grains and Oilseeds, pointed out that sharp growth in
demand for steel and a coal market that
has been revived by high energy prices
have pushed shipping costs sharply
higher.
"Whatever you trade, in the end you
have to ship it," he said. Total world dry
bulk shipments are set to rise to 2.735
million tonnes in 2007, from 2.664 million in 2006. Grains account for just 290
million of that total. "Grains are a relatively minor player," he said.
There are some problems, particularly congestion, because ports cannot
cope with the demand. But China has
sorted out its port congestion problem.
"They've invested and now they can unload as fast as anywhere in the world,"
he said. "Now the problem is with loading."
It's meant an uncertain life for the
shipping sector. "All the calculations of
supply and demand get totally off-balance," he said.
The continuing industrialization of
China and growth in India means that
there is a positive outlook for steel and
energy in 2007. The level of fleet utilization is set to remain high over the coming months.
However, a slower U.S. economy
would mean lower cement and steel
imports. "Like the beginning of 2006,
whichever way you look at the market,
it would appear a little on the high side
given fundamentals going forward,"
he said. "But look what happened in
2006."
Growth in the fleet has slowed but
the rate is 5% to 6%, compared to demand growth of 3% to 4%. "The order
book seems to be adequate for normal
growth," he said. "But that does not take
into account any surprises."
High freight costs might be better
than the alternative. "If somebody wants
to see lower freight rates, then my ques-
tion to you is, 'When is the next recession?' We do not feel the world is ready
WG
for recession yet," he said.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's
European editor. He may be contacted at
chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of
WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.
www.gwmfg.com
913-682-2291
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For more information, see Page 78.
www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / July 2007
29
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World Grain - July 2007
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2007
Contents
World Grain - July 2007 - 1
World Grain - July 2007 - 2
World Grain - July 2007 - 3
World Grain - July 2007 - Contents
World Grain - July 2007 - 5
World Grain - July 2007 - 6
World Grain - July 2007 - 7
World Grain - July 2007 - 8
World Grain - July 2007 - 9
World Grain - July 2007 - 10
World Grain - July 2007 - 11
World Grain - July 2007 - 12
World Grain - July 2007 - 13
World Grain - July 2007 - 14
World Grain - July 2007 - 15
World Grain - July 2007 - 16
World Grain - July 2007 - 17
World Grain - July 2007 - 18
World Grain - July 2007 - 19
World Grain - July 2007 - 20
World Grain - July 2007 - 21
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World Grain - July 2007 - 27
World Grain - July 2007 - 28
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World Grain - July 2007 - 33
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World Grain - July 2007 - 36
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World Grain - July 2007 - 38
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World Grain - July 2007 - 40
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World Grain - July 2007 - 73
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World Grain - July 2007 - 75
World Grain - July 2007 - 76
World Grain - July 2007 - 77
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2024
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