World Grain - May 2008 - 70

FEATURE: IGC FORECASTS FLOUR TRADE INCREASE

trasted with takings of 430,000 tonnes
in 2005-06.
As the result of Brazil's large purchases, Argentina moved into third
place in global flour exports. The IGC
projected Argentina's flour exports in
2007-08 at 1,250,000 tonnes in wheat
equivalent, compared with 975,000 in
the prior season and double the outgo

of 642,000 in 2005-06.
According to the IGC, export taxes
imposed by Argentina, tied to duties
placed on wheat, were still 10 percentage points less than on wheat flour.
The import total forecast for the CIS in
2007-08 was boosted to 2,080,000 tonnes
of wheat equivalent, up 260,000 tonnes
from the projection of last November. The

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latest estimate compared with 1,945,000
tonnes in 2006-07 and 1,522,000 in
2005-06. It would be a new record in CIS
flour takings and also would exceed the
totals of the Former Soviet Union.
Uzbekistan and Tadjikistan continued as the leading CIS importers. Major
increases were indicated for Georgia,
the total now placed at 225,000 tonnes,
against 115,000 previously. Smaller regional importers, like Moldova, were
projected to take 125,000 tonnes, against
37,000 previously.
Kazakhstan maintained its rank in
2007-08 as the world's largest flour exporter, with shipments forecast at 1.9 million tonnes, against 2,025,000 in the prior
year. Russia's flour exports were forecast
to rise to 500,000 tonnes, against 235,000
in 2006-07. Ukraine's flour exports were
expected to post a sharp increase.
Commenting on Kazakhstan's role
as the world's leading flour shipper, the
IGC cited not just the CIS, but also Afghanistan and Mongolia as the principal
destinations for flour exports.
"The latest export data confirm strong
regional sales," the Council said. It noted
that the volume was being maintained in
face of concerns about tightening in domestic wheat supplies.
In the case of the increased Far East
Asia flour takings, the IGC attributed
this gain mainly to expanded shipments
of flour from China. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand were
among countries that bought additional
amounts of flour from China.
As a result, China's flour exports
were forecast to reach 900,000 tonnes
in wheat equivalent, up 100,000 from
the prior projection and 40% more than
645,000 in the previous season. This was
the largest total of flour exported from
China since 1997-98, when it reported
shipments of 947,000 tonnes.
At the same time, the IGC noted that
China has imposed a 25% export tax
on wheat flour as well as export quotas,
which will reduce shipments in the remainder of the marketing year.
The Council noted that competition
from China resulted in a drop in pro-

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