World Grain - May 2008 - 72

FEATURE: IGC FORECASTS FLOUR TRADE INCREASE

spective Australian flour exports to a
five-year low of 275,000 tonnes, against
335,000 in the previous season and
325,000 in 2005-06. Australia has experienced a particular shortfall in its shipments to Indonesia.
IRAQ IMPORTS FALL
In contrast with many import increas-

es, takings by Iraq were projected to
fall to 600,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, against 855,000 in the previous
crop year and 1,484,000 in 2005-06.
The IGC said that recent purchases
of milling wheat would indicate that
wheat flour will account for 20% of
Iraq's total imports of wheat and flour
in 2007-08, compared with nearly 30%

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in the previous crop year.
As the result of the drop in Iraq imports, exports of wheat flour from Turkey have slowed. The country, which a
few years ago was the world's leading
exporter, was projected to ship 1 million
tonnes in 2007-08, against 1,035,000 in
2006-07 and 2,250,000 in 2005-06.
After registering a decrease in every
crop year since 1996-97, when its wheat
flour exports reached a record 6,249,000
tonnes, the European Union (E.U.) was
expected to post an increase in 2007-08.
The IGC projected E.U. flour exports at
1.5 million tonnes of wheat equivalent,
up from the low of 1,310,000 in the prior year. The E.U. outgo, which ranked
that bloc second to Kazakhstan as a
flour exporter, was below shipments of
1,941,000 in 2005-06 and 2,203,000 in
2004-05. The latest forecast for 2007-08
was up 200,000 tonnes from November,
reflecting a steady pace of shipments and
a marked increase in licenses awarded in
recent months.
The United States (U.S.), which at
the middle of the past century was the
world's leading flour exporter, also experienced an increase in shipments for
2007-08, but it still ranked as among the
smallest flour shippers. According to the
IGC, U.S. exports in 2007-08 will reach
425,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, up
75,000 from November, and compared
with 330,000 in 2006-07 and the low of
312,000 in 2005-06.
Three countries each were projected
to ship 500,000 tonnes, placing them
ahead of U.S. shipments. They were
Pakistan, Russia and the United Arab
Emirates.
Flour exporters not specifically identified were forecast to account for a
larger share than usual of prospective
2007-08 flour trade, the IGC indicated.
The forecast for "others" was raised
to 1,235,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, against 1,045,000 projected in
November. The outgo for this category
was 1,070,000 tonnes in 2006-07 and
WG
969,000 in 2005-06.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of
WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

For more information, see Page 82.

72

May 2008 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com



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Contents
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