World Grain - October 2008 - 45
FEATURE: IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL?
Baltic indices and routes
Baltic indices and routes
last 2 years
last 10 years
$12,000
$12,000
$11,000
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$11,000
$10,000
Index
Index
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
/0
1/
20
06
12
/1
1/
20
06
03
/2
8/
20
07
07
/1
6/
20
07
10
/3
1/
20
07
02
/1
5/
20
08
06
/0
2/
20
08
09
09
/0
1/
19
98
01
/0
6/
20
00
06
/2
6/
20
01
12
/1
6/
20
02
06
/0
7/
20
04
11
/2
5/
20
05
05
/1
6/
20
07
$4,000
Source: The Baltic Exchange Ltd.
very difficult for the lines to price differentially, so the whole
market gets priced alike. Naturally, higher price levels would
eliminate low-value shippers. However, the lines have a natural
tendency to cannibalize export business amongst themselves.
The impact of the dollar will have varying effects. A weaker
dollar may allow exporters to pay slightly more for transportation while still allowing them to compete on the delivered
price. However, a stronger dollar will place even more emphasis on reducing the cost of transportation.
Excluding the high-value segment, which might be experiencing a secular shift, there are a variety of factors which
would reinforce the cyclical nature for the remaining -
and majority of the - export market. If, and more than
likely when, bulk rates return to lower levels, it is expected
that export grain will resume its historical reliance on bulk
movement.
A single, 55,000-tonne load is cheaper, not to mention
much simpler administratively, than 2,400-container shipments for the same lot.
Ultimately, the result will be driven by several markets factors: export grain bulk shipping; rail; container shipping; and
the dollar. Predicting one market accurately is impressive.
WG
Picking all five is hard to imagine.
Theodore Prince is president of Consolidated Chassis Management, LLC.
He can be reached at tprince@ccmpool.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@
sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.
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World Grain - October 2008
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - October 2008
Contents
World Grain - October 2008 - 1
World Grain - October 2008 - 2
World Grain - October 2008 - 3
World Grain - October 2008 - Contents
World Grain - October 2008 - 5
World Grain - October 2008 - 6
World Grain - October 2008 - 7
World Grain - October 2008 - 8
World Grain - October 2008 - 9
World Grain - October 2008 - 10
World Grain - October 2008 - 11
World Grain - October 2008 - 12
World Grain - October 2008 - 13
World Grain - October 2008 - 14
World Grain - October 2008 - 15
World Grain - October 2008 - 16
World Grain - October 2008 - 17
World Grain - October 2008 - 18
World Grain - October 2008 - 19
World Grain - October 2008 - 20
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World Grain - October 2008 - 23
World Grain - October 2008 - 24
World Grain - October 2008 - 25
World Grain - October 2008 - 26
World Grain - October 2008 - 27
World Grain - October 2008 - 28
World Grain - October 2008 - 29
World Grain - October 2008 - 30
World Grain - October 2008 - 31
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World Grain - October 2008 - 40
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World Grain - October 2008 - 44
World Grain - October 2008 - 45
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
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