World Grain - December 2008 - 16

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Record expansion in global grain use for ethanol
LONDON, ENGLAND - Fired mainly by
continued rapid growth in the United States,
global use of grains in making ethanol in
2008-09 was projected by the International
Grains Council (IGC) to post an increase of
30.4% over the previous year. While the percentage increase lagged the prior crop year's
gain of 32.1%, the net increase of 29.4 mil-

lion tonnes was a new record and ran well
ahead of the increase of 23.4 million in the
preceding season.
The IGC projected global use of grain
in making ethanol in the current season
at 125.8 million tonnes, compared with
96.4 million in 2007-08 and 73 million in
2006-07. This season's use was close to

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three times the 44.2 million tonnes used in
making ethanol in 2004-05.
Based on IGC projections of worldwide
disappearance of grains in 2008-09, forecast at 1.75 billion tonnes, ethanol use will
account for 7.2%, against 5.7% in the prior
season. Ethanol use represented just about
half of forecast industrial use of grains in
2008-09, placed at 251.5 million tonnes,
against 217.9 million in 2007-08.
Food use of all grains in 2008-09 was
forecast by the IGC at 605.7 million tonnes,
against 600 million in the preceding crop
season, while feed use was projected to reach
773.6 million, compared with 751.2 million
in 2007-08.

Expanding use for making ethanol, mainly in the U.S., accounted for most of the
gain anticipated in 2008-09. Of the expected
global use of 125.8 million tonnes, the U.S.
accounted for 101.6 million, mostly as corn.
Thus, U.S. use of grains to make ethanol was
forecast to rise 32.3% from 76.8 million in
the prior season. That was up from 24.1 million in 2004-05.
Corn comprised the main grain processed
into ethanol, at 93% of global use and 99%
in the United States. Wheat was a distant
second, with 4.7 million tonnes expected
to be used in 2008-09 to make ethanol on a
global basis, of which 3.1 million was in the
European Union.
The IGC said the U.S. leadership in expanding output of ethanol "was expected to
slow from the recent very rapid rates, but with
the utilization of maize likely to exceed 120
million tonnes within the next five years."
E.U. use of grains for making ethanol in
2008-09 was projected at 5.6 million tonnes,
against 2.9 million in the previous crop season. Canada was projected at 2.3 million,
against 1.7 million, and China was expected
to use 13.8 million in 2008-09, compared
with 13 million in 2007-08. The Council observed that high raw material costs slowed
expansion plans in both the E.U. and Canada.
Completion of new plants could result in a
production increase in 2008-09.

For more information, see Page 82.

16

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