World Grain - June 2009 - 24

COUNTRYFOCUS

South Africa maize situation
(in 1,000 tonnes)
Production
Imports
Exports

2001-02
10,050
923
1,074

2002-03
9,675
441
1,096

2003-04
9,700
219
729

2004-05
11,716
361
2,143

2005-06
6,935
931
548

2006-07
7,300
1,121
468

2007-08
13,164
50
2,200

2008-09*
12,000
100
2,500

2009-10*
11,500
100
2,000

* Projected
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

around 1% per year in recent years. But
that changed in 2009, as the crisis in
neighboring Zimbabwe has caused what
the Chamber of Milling describes as "a
huge increase in wheat maize consumption." Currently demand is up by around
12%, although the increased demand is
expected to be short-lived since Zimbabwe does have its own milling capacity.
The wheat milling industry has expanded by around 1% a year. Although
it's still growing, de Villiers said the
current economic downturn could mean
a temporary slowing in growth.

The growth in consumption of cereals follows the population trend which
is for steady growth at around 1.5% a
year. There is a steady drift toward more
processed products and more wheat as
affluence has increased.
After a long period of consolidation,
which saw the number of baking plants
decline from 250 to 70 in a period of
seven years leading up to 2001, consolidation in the bakery sector has largely
come to a halt. The big plant bakers are
building on their role, and their share
of the market has gradually risen, get-

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2007-08. The plant bakers need to expand, according to de Villiers, but the
low level of profitability in the sector
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funds to invest.
GRAIN FARMING

South African grain producers are
some of the least supported farmers in
the world. According to Wessel Lemmer, senior economist at the farmers'
organization Grain SA, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and

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24

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World Grain - June 2009

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