World Grain - June 2009 - 56

FEATURE

Global flour export
forecast increases

rospects for global flour exports in 2008-09 increased
by nearly 400,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent in the latest estimates issued by the International Grains Council
(IGC). Even with the gain, the new assessment of this season's export flour trade fell 8% from the record trade volume
achieved in the prior season.
According to IGC computations, world exports of wheat
flour in 2008-09 will reach 10,955,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, up nearly 400,000 tonnes from the prior forecast issued
last January. That increase, as well as revisions in prior year
data on global flour trade, largely reflects revised official export figures for Turkey. That country in recent years has been
among the leaders in global flour exporting.
At the new figure of 10,955,000 tonnes, world flour exports
in 2008-09 compare with the record of 11,860,000 in 2007-08
and the previous peak of 11,186,000 in 1996-97. This crop
year's aggregate was slightly ahead of the revised totals of
10,694,000 for 2006-07 and 10,846,000 for 2005-06.
Accounting importantly for the flour trade record in 2007-08
were export controls imposed on wheat by many countries -
steps that often encouraged takings of flour - in reaction to
sharply higher wheat prices and concerns about supply adequacy. With those controls now mostly eliminated, flour trade has
shrunk, and several leading importers cut back on their takings.
The IGC particularly pointed to the impact of reduced imports
by Brazil, down to 850,000 tonnes from 1,076,000 in 2008-09;
by Afghanistan, at 800,000 tonnes, compared with 915,000 in
the prior year, and Libya, down to 900,000 from 1,060,000.
KAZAKHSTAN STILL RANKED NO. 1
The IGC data still ranked Kazakhstan as the world's leading flour exporter in 2008-09, with expected shipments of
1,850,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, or 17% of total world
flour trade. The Kazakhstan total was down from the two
prior seasons when its exports of flour were slightly above
2 million tonnes in wheat equivalent. Its exports go mainly

by Morton Sosland

IGC projections up nearly 400,000
tonnes on revision of Turkish outgo
to three neighboring countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Tajikistan was forecast to take 800,000 tonnes and
Uzbekistan 900,000. Turkey, which counts Iraq and Indonesia
as major flour markets, was expected to ship 1,750,000 tonnes
in wheat equivalent this crop season, an upward revision of
450,000 tonnes from the earlier estimate. In addition, the new
official data resulted in boosting Turkey's flour exports in
2007-08 by 390,000 to 1,520,000 and in 2006-07 by 720,000
to 1,754,000.
Ranking in third place as a flour exporter in 2008-09 was
the European Union (E.U.), forecast to ship 1,350,000 tonnes,
against 1,230,000 in 2007-08. This outgo, which was unchanged from earlier in the year, marked the first annual rise
in E.U. exports in many years. Now ranked third as a flour exporter, the E.U. not long ago was the world's leading shipper.
The only other nation expected to ship more than 1 million
tonnes of wheat flour in 2008-09 was Argentina, with an outgo
of 1,200,000 tonnes, against 1,530,000 in the preceding season.
For the United States (U.S.), flour exports in 2008-09 were
forecast at 450,000 tonnes, against 470,000 in the prior season
and the recent low of 312,000 in 2005-06.
No country was expected to import more than 1 million
tonnes of wheat flour in grain equivalent in 2008-09, compared
with two in that category a year ago. Last year's leaders, Brazil (1,076,000 tonnes) and Libya (1,060,000), were forecast at
850,000 and 900,000 tonnes, respectively, in 2008-09.
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