World Grain - November 2010 - 7

from the editor-in-chief

Flour trade as global
intelligence source

I

n light of the massive quantity of intelligence data gathered daily, it might seem
a stretch to cite a source as ordinary as
export flour trade as a good way of learning
what's going on around the world. Sure, for
millers and flour users, as well as keen observers of markets, export statistics provided
periodically by the International Grains
Council reflect the same supply-demand
characteristics that influence wheat prices.
Yet, in certain ways, export flour statistics
reveal much more because milling is an excellent measure of how a nation's people are
being fed. Milling requires capital spending decisions, especially in countries where
choices are being made between satisfying
peoples' desires for food and devoting resources to other purposes. This means that
countries allocating funding to maintain and
build domestic milling along with exporting
are making decisions different from others.
The same, in a negative way, may be said
about countries that are expanding imports
of flour.
Saying this about the centrality of wheat
flour is relatively new, reflecting a considerable change in politics and economics. In
the first four decades following World War
II, the leading flour exporting nation was the
United States, initially, and then the European Union. The see-saw relationship between
these two mainly stemmed from competition
focused on building export markets as a way

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8

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of bolstering domestic milling and wheat
farming. As soon as priorities evolved that
no longer had agriculture as the centerpiece,
the U.S. first, and more recently the E.U.,
abandoned programs to support milling,
mainly by subsidizing exports.
Near abandonment of flour exporting by
these two powers created one of the great
global trade vacuums of recent memory.
Looking back a quarter of a century, it
is likely that no one could have foreseen
what countries in the first decade of the
21st century would emerge as flour export
leaders. That the principal flour exporters,
together accounting for one-third to 40%
of total annual trade, would be Kazakhstan
and Turkey is hard to believe even when it
has been the case from this century's start.
Turkey did not emerge as a force of any
size in flour exporting until the 1990s, and
Kazakhstan, which had been part of the
Former Soviet Union, was not even counted as a separate flour shipper until the current century. The eminence these nations
have gained in flour may be credited to
forces like proximity. Yet, there's also no
question but that their governments have
seized upon being a flour supplier as valuable to building relations. Thus, in the past
year, Turkey's aggressive export pricing
built new ties to Asia.
Hardly any flour trade change seems more
significant than the emergence of Afghani-

stan as the largest flour importer. This Asian
nation, the focus of NATO forces led by the
U.S. military and the breeding ground of terrorists, imported 1,750,000 tonnes in 200910. This was 13% of flour trade, putting it far
in the lead as the major destination. Afghanistan was not a significant importer of wheat
flour until 2002, and its gaining such standing reflects the effort to assure its people appreciate how NATO wants to assure an adequate supply of bread. Iraq, which continues
to rank among the leading flour importers,
is another nation where supplying flour has
become an essential political tool.
That 2009-10 marked the third straight
year of a record being set by world flour
exports stems in large part from the role
that flour plays in these difficult political
and economic situations. Concluding from
the evolution of flour exporting thus far
in the 21st century that conflict resolution
and even global peace threaten the future
of flour exporting is much like the assertions of several decades ago that milling
expansion around the world would sharply
curtail exporting. Recent experience with
trade records affirms that global flour exporting has significant vitality, assuredly
due in large part to expanding demand for
flour-based foods.

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Morton I. Sosland
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World Grain - November 2010

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2010

Contents
World Grain - November 2010 - 1
World Grain - November 2010 - 2
World Grain - November 2010 - 3
World Grain - November 2010 - Contents
World Grain - November 2010 - 5
World Grain - November 2010 - 6
World Grain - November 2010 - 7
World Grain - November 2010 - 8
World Grain - November 2010 - 9
World Grain - November 2010 - 10
World Grain - November 2010 - 11
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com