World Grain - February 2011 - 16

newsreview
U.S. 2011 wheat, corn, soybean carryover down
WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2011 carryover of wheat, corn and soybeans were reduced from December projections, while 2010 U.S. corn and soybean production were reduced from November estimates, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in reports on Jan. 12. U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011 was projected at 818 million bushels, down 40 million bushels, or 5%, from 858 million bushels forecast in December and down 158 million bushels, or 16%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the USDA said in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 745 million bushels, down 87 million bushels, or 10%, from 832 million bushels in December, and down 963 million bushels, or 56%, from 1.708 billion bushels in 2010. U.S. 2010 corn production was revised to 12.447 billion bushels, down 1% from 12.540 billion bushels forecast in November and down 5% from a record 13.092 billion bushels in 2009. Average corn yield was estimated at 152.8 bushels an acre, down 11.9 bushels from a record 164.7 bushels in 2009. Harvested area was estimated at 81.4 million acres, up 2% from 2009. U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 15%, from 165 million bushels in December, and down 11 million bushels, or 7%, from 151 million bushels in 2010. U.S. 2010 soybean production was estimated at 3.329 billion bushels, down 1% from 3.375 billion bushels forecast in November and also down 1% from a record 3.359 billion bushels last year, the USDA said. The average soybean yield was 43.5 bushels an acre, down 0.4 bushel from the November estimate and down 0.5 bushel from a record 44 bushels in 2009. Harvested area was a record 76.6 million acres, up slightly from 2009. USDA-projected 2010-11 carryover numbers for wheat, corn and soybeans and USDA-revised 2010 production numbers for corn and soybeans all were below the average of pre-report trade expectations. Futures prices traded sharply higher for all three commodities following the reports. “U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected 40 million bushels lower (in January) as a reduction in expected feed and residual use is more than offset by higher projected exports,” the USDA said. Supply projections for 2010-11 were unchanged from December with beginning stocks at 976 million bushels, 2010 production at 2.208 billion bushels, imports at 110 million bushels and total supply at 3.294 billion bushels. Total use was projected at 2.476 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from December and up 458 million bushels, or 23%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10. Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.3 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from December and up 419 million bushels, or 48%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10. “Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher, reﬂecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and reduced competition with lower foreign supplies of milling quality wheat,” the USDA said. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.99 million tonnes, up 1.27 million tonnes from December but down 20.71 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.43 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.82 million tonnes, down 690,000 tonnes from December and down 36.78 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.6 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.26 million tonnes, down 1.21 million tonnes from December but up 13.5 million tonnes from 651.76 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.64 million tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes from December but down 10.11 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.75 million tonnes in the prior year. “Australia production is lowered 0.5 million tonnes as heavy late-December rains and ﬂooding further increased crop losses in Queensland,” the USDA said. “Australia exports are reduced 1.5 million tonnes as quality problems limit export opportunities.” The USDA projected Australian 2010-11 wheat production at 25 million tonnes and exports at 13.5 million tonnes.

For more information, see Page 114.

February 2011 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

http://www.prive.fr http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - February 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - February 2011