World Grain - March 2018 - 101

year's drought hurt dryland production and what made
this summer so punishing has been persistent hot temperatures. It may have been one of the hottest summers
on record in parts of interior eastern Australia, stressing
livestock and crops. Needless to say, Australia is due a
weather pattern change and March may bring it.
Eastern Australia should see a more "normal" weather pattern in March, but the change will come too late
for support of summer grain, oilseed and cotton production. Producers are hoping that the change will bring
back more normal weather in southern parts of the
nation so that wheat, barley and canola planting from
mid-April into June will occur swiftly and favorably.
EUROPE IMPACTED LESS BY LA NIÑA
Europe was the one place in the Northern Hemisphere
that La Niña and winter weather extremes seemed to
have little impact in recent months. However, a pattern change that began evolving in the second half of
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bout of notably cold-biased temperatures. The bout of
cold and dry conditions in northern and central Europe
and the western Commonwealth of Independent States
ZLOOSUHYDLOLQWRWKH¿UVWZHHNRI0DUFK
Europe's sudden bout of adversity will reach a climax in early March with a big increase in stormy
weather for about a week to 10 days. During that time,
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and wind across the continent. Travel disruptions and
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and southern portions of the continent. Later in midMarch, weather in Europe should improve again, but
the region will be closely monitored for a possible relapse into the same pattern described here.
North America weather also will be changing soon.
La Niña's demise already has helped to induce a wetter
weather bias in parts of the United States. Recent excessive precipitation in the lower Ohio, lower Mississippi
and Tennessee River Basins has resulted in some sigQL¿FDQWÀRRGLQJ7KHSDWWHUQKDVKHOSHGWRFXUWDLODQ
extended period of La Niña induced dryness. However,
drought conditions are remaining in parts of the central
and southern Plains.
/D 1LxD¶V LQÀXHQFH RQ WKH FHQWUDO 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LV
slipping, but March will extend the pattern of dryness a
little longer in the southwestern Plains. Late in March
and more likely in April, the opportunity for precipitation in the southwestern Plains will return. Concern
about wheat production in the central and southern
Plains will continue for a while. The production issues
do not just stem from the lack of moisture recently,
but from winterkill that may have occurred in late
www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / March 2018

Percent of normal rainfall for Feb. 1-20, 2018

0-25%

75-100%

200-300%

25-50%

100-150%

300-400%

50-75%

150-200%

>400%

Source: World Weather, Inc.

December and January as waves of bitter cold affected
the region without adequate snow cover. Assessing the
production loss will begin soon when crops normally
start to green up, which will be in March.
North America weather is going to be a little slow to
change, but March and April will bring it on eventually. Canada's Prairies and the north-central U.S. Plains
are still deep in drought and the pattern is not likely
to abate anytime soon. However, late March and especially April should open that door for possible change.
World Weather, Inc. is greatly concerned, however,
that drought-busting rain in Canada's Prairies will
not occur until the growing season is well underway
and there may be some deep concerns about lacking
subsoil moisture and possible production cuts as the
region deals with the aftermath of nearly a full year of
poor precipitation.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present,
past and future weather conditions included in this report
constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of
this report and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

101

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World Grain - March 2018

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