World Grain - March 2018 - 26

COUNTRY FOCUS

Ukraine wheat situation
(in 1,000 tonnes)

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2017-18*

2016-17

Exports

2015-16

2013-14

* Projected
Production
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

2014-15

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

0

from the previous estimate of 10,000 tonnes and also up on the
11,000 tonnes exported the year before. Exports of oats in 201718 are put at 38,000 tonnes, an unchanged estimate that compares
with 44,000 tonnes exported the year before.
Among the oilseeds, Ukraine's 2017-18 soybean crop is forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, down from the previous year's crop
of 4.3 million, "on a marked retreat in yields." Soybean exports
are put at 2.5 million tonnes, down from 2.8 million in 2016-17.
Ukraine also produces rapeseed, with the IGC's forecast for the
2017-18 crop unchanged at 2.1 million tonnes, up from 1.3 million the year before. The IGC's forecast for the country's 2017-18
rapeseed exports is also unchanged at 1.9 million tonnes, with the
previous year's exports at 1.7 million.
"Since the beginning of 2016 the Ukrainian currency stabilized
with a trend toward small levels of devaluation," the USDA attaché said in a report published in April 2017. "This has made
domestic prices more predictable and decreased transaction costs
to farmers, input suppliers and traders.
"This manageable level of devaluation favors grain exports as
well as allows farmers to stabilize their business models. However, the unstable economic situation in the country that began at the
end of 2013 had an impact on crop structure. Farmers decreased
WRWDODUHDVXQGHUJUDLQVZKLFKSURYLGHGORZHUSUR¿WDELOLW\´
,QVWHDGDUHDRIRLOVHHGVZKLFKDUHJHQHUDOO\PRUHSUR¿Wable, rose.

changes to domestic macroeconomic policy."
In the summer of 2017, there were more than 550 mills in
Ukraine, with 335 of them operating. The 20 biggest companies
SURGXFHGPRUHWKDQRIÀRXUSURGXFWLRQLQ
According to the attaché, bread production has been decreasing, in line with a decline in population and the loss of control of
parts of the country's territory.
"In addition, middle-income consumers are switching away
from purchasing 'social' types of bread in favor of premium bakery products and home bread making," the attaché's annual report said. "While large, mostly state-owned, bread making enterprises have been reducing production quantities, various private
specialty bread producers have been opening small stores and
supplying grocery stores in larger cities, catering to the changing tastes of consumers where the majority of income increases
occurred."
The loss of access to the Crimean Peninsula and certain regions of Eastern Ukraine has triggered a search by millers for
QHZPDUNHWVZLWKÀRXUH[SRUWVLQ-XO\WR-DQXDU\DW
242,000 tonnes, up almost 14%.
"The major factor was a boost in exports to a number of counWULHVLQ$IULFDWRQQHVD¿YHIROGLQFUHDVHFRPSDUHGWR
the same period of the previous year, and the Middle East (mainly United Arab Emirates and Palestine), 48,000 tonnes, a near
 LQFUHDVH´ WKH DWWDFKp VDLG ³6XEVWDQWLDO DPRXQWV RI ÀRXU
were directed to: China, 47,000 tonnes; Israel, 19,000 tonnes; and
Panama, 9,000 tonnes."
The attaché cited "industry insiders as saying that those counWULHVPLJKWQRWEHWKH¿QDOGHVWLQDWLRQV7KHUHZHUHDOVRVDOHVWR
traditional buyers, including Moldova at almost 20,000 tonnes
and North Korea at almost 26,000 tonnes."
"Imports of wheat in Ukraine are virtually non-existent," the
attaché said. "The country produces enough wheat to satisfy its
domestic consumption needs."
The only imports that do come in are typically high protein
wheat varieties for production of premium pasta products, and
seeds of some special wheat varieties for breeding purposes in
Ukraine.
BARLEY, CORN PLANTINGS

Barley planting is seen by Ukrainian farmers as an "insurance
policy" in case of high winterkill and a low cost, because it is a
low maintenance crop in demand on domestic and export markets, according to the attaché.
"However, in recent years, producer preferences have shifted
toward production of corn," the annual report said. "The main
FLOUR PRODUCTION
factor behind the drop in production is lower yields for this crop
Domestic consumption of wheat is mostly for food pur- compared to winter wheat. Additionally, barley is harder to sell
SRVHVWKHDWWDFKpVDLGQRWLQJWKDWÀRXUSURGXFWLRQVLJQL¿- than wheat and corn." The feed demand comes from poultry and
cantly decreased in 2014-15 due to reduced demand associ- pork producers. Malting barley accounts for less than 10% of
ated with decreased incomes and Ukraine's loss of control barley production.
of the Crimean Peninsula. The report did not expect growth
0DL]HLVSRSXODUZLWKIDUPHUV¿WWLQJZHOOLQWRFURSURWDWLRQV
LQ ÀRXU SURGXFWLRQ LQ  ³SHQGLQJ QR VLJQL¿FDQW with high yields, as well as high costs, compared to other grains.
26

March 2018 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - March 2018
