World Grain - March 2018 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR

BRICS nations a
growing force in grain

ne of the more fascinating developments in global agriculture over the
last 20 years has been the emergence
of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a growing
force in grain production and trade.
'H¿QHGE\JURZWKDQGH[SDQVLRQLQYLUWXally every way imaginable over this period,
this bloc of nations represents nearly half of
the world's population, 25% of its land and
about 45% of its agricultural output.
A report released in November 2017 by
the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service entitled "The Global Landscape of Agricultural Trade, 19952014," included a section that outlined the
BRIIC's increasing importance in agricultural trade (In its study, the USDA included
Indonesia - hence, the second I - and did not
include South Africa, which was formally
admitted by the bloc of nations in 2010).
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x The countries' share of nominal agricultural import value rose to 19% in
2011-14 from 13% in 1995-99, and
WKHLU VKDUH RI H[SRUW YDOXH URVH WR
23% from 14% over those same time
periods.
x Real GDP growth per person in all
BRIIC countries but Brazil was historically high from 1995-2014, with
China's per capita GDP increasing
by an astounding 400% during that
period.
x From 1995-2012, BRIIC countries
achieved annual total factor productivity growth in agricultural products above
the global average of 1.52%, with Brazil
at nearly 3.5%, China at 3%, Russia at
2.5% and Indonesia at 2.25%.
Looking to the future, the USDA predicts
that continued economic growth in China,
India and Indonesia will spur consumption
growth and that the BRIIC's share of the
global economy will reach 27% by 2025,
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America.
While many arrows appear to be pointing
up for this bloc of emerging nations, it must
be noted that Goldman Sachs, whose chief
economist Jim O'Neill coined the acronym

"BRIC" in his 2001 paper in which he argued that these emerging countries would
likely dominate the 21st century globalized economy, shut down its BRIC investment fund several years ago after its assets
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Certainly, these countries have their share
of issues to contend with. The commodities
collapse in recent years has had a negative
impact, particularly on Brazil and Russia.
And as the U.S. Council on Foreign RelaWLRQV QRWHV LQ D UHFHQW EULH¿QJ WKHUH¶V QRW
PXFK WKDW XQL¿HV WKH %5,&6 FRXQWULHV EHsides the fact that they are large and nonWestern. In the case of China and India,
there has even been recent military tension
as Indian and Chinese troops spent last summer in a standoff in territory disputed by
China and Bhutan, an ally of India.
Thankfully, from an agricultural standpoint, there does appear to be sincere cooperation taking place. The countries have
signed a Memorandum of Understanding
for the establishment of the BRICS Agricultural Research Platform. It is envisaged as
a virtual facility to promote food security,
sustainable agri-development and poverty
alleviation through strategic cooperation in
agriculture within the BRICS countries.
In addition to India working on setting
up the virtual research platform, the action
plan involves Russia preparing a document
on international trade and investment; China
working on the establishment of an agri-database for the countries; Brazil working on
the issue of food security for the most vulnerable people; and South Africa developing
a strategy on climate change.
If the cooperation in this endeavor is
genuine, and meaningful knowledge and
information is gained
and shared between these
countries on these topics,
one can only envision this
bloc of nations becoming
an even more formidable
force in agriculture in the
years to come.
Arvin Donley
Editor

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World Grain - March 2018

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