World Grain - May 2018 - 78

FEATURE: SOUTHERN BRAZIL DRYING A CONCERN

storms return with a few frontal systems that move into
the region from Argentina later in the month. However,
that is not the case this year.
Argentina had been dealing with one of its worst
droughts in history - at least from January through
March. During that period, many crops lost 30% of their
production potential and that has had an impact on the
total South America crop and to a certain degree the export business as well. April weather suddenly changed
in Argentina and rain has been falling more frequently.
The moisture was needed to break the drought and to restore soil moisture for winter wheat and a few late season
crops, but the rainfall pattern has become stagnant, resulting in multiple rain events over the heart of Argentina.
Normally, storm systems move in and out of Argentina
routinely during April, reducing the potential for moisture
surpluses and sending some timely rain events into Brazil
for its late season and second season crops.
The anomalous weather in South America has begun
to prevail a little too long. Dryness in interior southern
Brazil has begun to fester a little too long and topsoil
conditions are trending much drier. Subsoil moisture

is still favorable in southern Brazil but with reproduction of late planted corn expected next month, there
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might reduce yields and quality.
Most of the computer weather forecast models have
suggested Argentina's blocking weather pattern with freTXHQWUDLQZLOOSUHYDLOWKURXJKWKH¿UVWZHHNRI0D\DQG
that means interior southern Brazil's dryness also will prevail for at least that much longer. The situation puts pressure on rainfall in the remainder of May. Timely rain will
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QRUPDOO\UDLQIDOOGRHVQRWRFFXUWKDWRIWHQRUYHU\VLJQL¿cantly in May. The situation raises worry in the marketplace that second-season corn in Brazil, which is already
advertised to be smaller because of reduced plantings,
may soon face a further reduction in production because
of limited rainfall during reproduction.
UNITED STATES SLOW TO PLANT CORN
In the meantime, in the United States early corn planting is behind the normal pace. A cool and somewhat

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World Grain - May 2018

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