World Grain - June 2018 - 87
[ Flour Short Story No.1 ]
"China could easily import
another 10% to 15%, so
another 10 million to 15
million tonnes of soybeans."
- J.Y. Chow, senior vice-president for food
and agri coverage, Mizuho Bank
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favors soy versus palm oil. There might be a phasing out
of palm oil.
"China could easily import another 10% to 15%, so another 10 million to 15 million tonnes of soybeans. It won't happen overnight, but I expect there will be movement on this."
Juhui Huang, vice-president of corporate affairs for
Greater China at BRF Asia, said China could also be proactive in other markets in the near term.
"China may do something on rice trading to alleviate
stock pressure this year," he said. "It may not restrict rice
imports to avoid hurting its BRI partners, but it may encourage exports of rice and corn in 2018 by playing a price
game. China will also continue to expand the import of
agri products, especially high-quality, high-value products
like soybeans, meal and aqua products for environmental
and cost reasons.
"China may also soon become a large corn importer -
corn stocks have been drained in the last two to three years."
OTHER EXPANDING MARKETS
Of course, China is not the only expanding grains market. India's middle class is currently small compared to
China's, but some 150 million additional households are
due to achieve real PPP incomes of more than $20,000 by
2026, almost tripling the 2016 total. Indonesia is forecast
to add another 28 million households to its middle class
with real annual PPP income of $20,000 over the same
period, while Pakistan and Bangladesh also have rapidly
expanding middle classes that are expected to consume
more grains in the future.
Sumit Gupta, a business manager at McDonald Pelz
India, said India's population was still growing and, with
rising incomes, prosperity and urbanization would come
more demand for proteins and better food. He also noted
that India's ground water levels in many parts of the country were causing long-term grain production challenges
and making harvests more erratic with pulse production
While at present India was a relatively low per capita consumer of meat, Gupta said it was a myth that all
Indians were vegetarian. While much would depend on
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www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / June 2018