World Grain - July 2018 - 72
FEATURE: AUSTRALIA SUFFERING SEVERE DROUGHT is of great interest outside of the areas just mentioned. High pressure ridges have developed or are developing in Western Europe and North America. These ridges could induce some warmer and drier-than-usual weather. Germany and the United .LQJGRP ZLOO EH DIIHFWHG ¿UVW and by the second week of July WKH\ZLOOQHHGVLJQL¿FDQWPRLVWXUH )UDQFHDOVRZLOOGU\GRZQEXWLWLV more abundantly wet leading into this dry down period. Russia's southern region and neighboring areas of both Kazakhstan and eastern Ukraine were enduring a "Sukhovei" in the last days of June. A "Sukhovei" is D KRW GU\ ZLQG WKDW EORZV DFURVV the Russian Steppes and can desiccate cropland in a very short period of time. It usually generates wind speeds of 25 to 45 mph with very low humidity and temperatures well above average. Drought already is affecting Russia's southern UHJLRQ ZHVWHUQ .D]DNKVWDQ DQG HDVWHUQ 8NUDLQH DQG WKH 6XNKRYHL will make the situation worse. ,Q WKH PHDQWLPH ,QGLD¶V PRQsoon is beginning to perform better after a 10-day break in rainfall that has worried some producers DQGWUDGHUV,QGLDLVDQRWKHUSODFH OLNH$XVWUDOLD WKDW PXVW JHW DEXQdant rainfall in the next few months prior to the development of El Niño because El Niño eventually suppresses rainfall across the subcontinent. If El Niño begins to evolve ODWH LQ WKH WKLUG TXDUWHU VRPH ODWH seasonal rainfall may slip below avHUDJH EXW RYHUDOO FURS SURGXFWLRQ this summer should be good as long as rainfall occurs routinely through HDUO\6HSWHPEHUDVH[SHFWHG A high-pressure ridge over North America beginning in late June and HDUO\-XO\ZLOOEHFORVHO\PRQLWRUHG but late June rainfall bolstered soil moisture in the U.S. Midwest and that will buy some time before dryness becomes an issue. Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather, Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@ bizkc.rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com. 72 July 2018 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com