World Grain - August 2018 - 30

FEATURE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT DISCUSSED AT IGC

Robert Johansson,
chief economist,
U.S. Department
of Agriculture, said
there will be more
soybean acres
planted than corn
in the United States
this year.

knows that China is the largest producer of grain and also the largest consuming country, especially
soybeans."
Income has risen and the structure
of the population has changed.
"People living in urban conditions
has reached around 51%," he said.
"More and more people are going
into the city from the countryside.
Their income has increased. Their
consumption has increased. The uptake of commodities into China has
also increased."
In 2018, the Chinese government is
targeting a growth rate of 6.8% with
urban unemployment under 5.5%.
"Production of food has been
maintained at a very high level," he
said, but noted there is an oversupply of rice and maize. "China has
adjusted production structure ... to
reduce the oversupply situation and
raise the quality of food production.
The acreage adjustment is to try and
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demand situation."
YIELDS LOW IN AUSTRALIA
Peter Gooday, chief commodity analyst at the Australian
Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics and Sciences

30

(ABARES), outlined that country's
grain industry.
"Australian grain production is
dominated by cereals, mainly wheat
and barley," he said. "Yields are low,
averaging 1.9 tonnes a hectare for
wheat. Over 70% of our grain production is exported. Continued productivity growth is essential."
The most important factor in
achieving that productivity growth is
long-term investment in innovation.
"Large farms have increased their
share of production dramatically,"
he said. "Something like half the increase in productivity since the 1970s
has been because of this reallocation
of resources to large farms."
Climate change is likely to be a
substantial challenge for Australia.
He explained that in the 1990s
Australian agriculture had become
more intensive, creating higher
production in good years but an increased sensitivity to climate shocks.
Now improvements are being targeted toward getting better results in
dry years.
"It's important the government
and others don't impede the kind of
adjustments and investments in technology that are necessary to respond
to climate change," he said.

MORE RUSSIAN WINTER WHEAT
Andrey Sizov, managing director of
SovEcon in Russia, told the conference that Russia had had a bumper
crop in 2017-18, producing 135 million tonnes of grain, a new record,
mainly because of increased wheat
production.
"Yields are growing relatively
slowly but they are growing," he
VDLGQRWLQJWKDWIRUWKH¿UVWWLPHWKH
average wheat yield in Russia had
been three tonnes per hectare.
There had been some expansion in
area over recent years.
"It's not exploding," he said.
In many cases it does not make
economic sense to bring land back
into production. Milder winters because of climate change means that
more winter wheat is being produced while the spring wheat area is
declining.
"Obviously winter wheat yields
DUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQVSULQJ
wheat," he said. "Climate change
allows us to plant more winter
wheat."
Russian production also has
been encouraged by the devaluation of the ruble and a period of
relatively high commodity prices. The wheat export growth is a
straight line going "up and up and
up." The possible limit is a lack
of terminal capacity. He put current capacity at around 55 million
tonnes a year.
"We had a very mild winter and
moisture reserves are okay," he said.
There are "no big problems with the
so-called Russian drought."
Siberia had a cold winter with
snow lasting to the end of May.
"Planting lagged badly," he said. "I
think at the end of the day it will arrive. The yields are likely to be lower
because of very late planting."
Also, for this year's wheat crop
he noticed that crops in the south are
close to average.
"The center looks better than av-

August 2018 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - August 2018

http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
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http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
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http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
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http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
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http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
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http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
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