World Grain - August 2018 - 31
erage and the Volga, again, looks
slightly better than average," he said.
He estimated the wheat crop at 73
"The total supply of wheat for next
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years of growth, but it's still the second highest," he said.
He estimated exports at 37 million
"Russia is very likely to remain the
No. 1 wheat exporter in the new season," he said, predicting a strong start
to the export campaign.
Swithun Still, director of Solaris
Commodities, underlined Russia's
"Russia is set to hit 40 million
tonnes of wheat exports alone this
season, which ends at the end of June,
which is stupendous," he said.
However, he felt that Sizov's
37-million-tonne export forecast for
next season was optimistic.
"It's going to be hard to improve
the yield in the south," he said.
"They're always pretty high."
He pointed out that Russia did not
have, unlike other exporting countries, a well-funded lobby "going
around the world persuading buyers
to buy Russian wheat."
Instead, when the millers went
looking, the quality they needed
came from Russia.
"Production growth is possible,"
he said. "Today, actual planted area
is lower than it was in the Soviet
Union. The cost of production is less.
weak. Prices in rubles are good."
Yields in the south of Russia are
impressive compared to other origins.
"We have similar low yields
to Australia in Siberia," he said.
"Irrigation is a problem. That's why
you have swings in production relative to the weather."
He put port capacity for export at
around 5 million tonnes a month.
"There is more port infrastructure
being built in the next few years," he
said. "Russia will remain the focus,
particularly in wheat, where it is the
He put the wheat export potential
of Russia this year in "the low 30s,
maybe 32" million tonnes.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European
correspondent. He may be contacted at:
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