World Grain - August 2018 - 49
Academy of Sciences and edited by Robert John
Scholes, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits, South
Africa, said the rise in food demand in sub-Saharan
Africa in the years leading up to 2050 will be much
greater than in the world as a whole.
"Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase
2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple,
whereas current levels of cereal consumption already
depend on substantial imports," the article said. "At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports
or major expansion of agricultural area and associated
biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions."
The article explained that while studies had indicated
that the worldwide rise in food demand by 2050 could
be met by closing the gap between current yields and
the potential yield, using existing farmland, it will not
be feasible to meet future SSA demand for grains using
that strategy alone.
"Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for
spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to
yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain
That meant increasing cropping intensity, which
means upping the number of crops grown in the same
¿HOG HDFK \HDU DQG D VXVWDLQDEOH H[SDQVLRQ RI WKH
³,ILQWHQVL¿FDWLRQLVQRWVXFFHVVIXODQGPDVVLYHFURSland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend
much more on imports of cereals than it does today,"
the article said.
It focuses on Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger,
Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and
Zambia, looking at whether they can achieve selfVXI¿FLHQF\LQPDL]HPLOOHWULFHVRUJKXPDQGZKHDW
by 2050. Those commodities are central to food security, accounting for around 50% of the caloric intake
and 50% of the total crop area in the region. The 10
countries account for 54% of the 2010 population of
Sub-Saharan Africa and 58% of the 2010 arable land
in the region.
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/ World Grain
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