World Grain - August 2018 - 50

FEATURE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA'S FUTURE CHALLENGES

"Estimated cereal demand by 2050 for the 10 countries is 335% of that in 2010 under the medium population projections and projected per capita demand," the
article said. "Population growth alone accounts for approximately three-quarters of this increase and is thus
much more important than per capita increase in demand due to dietary changes.
The article explained that the results for the region
as a whole are unlikely to be better than for the 10
countries.
"Results reveal that although yield gap closure on
existing cropland and a large acceleration in yield
JURZWKUDWHVDUHHVVHQWLDOWRDFKLHYHFHUHDOVHOIVXI¿FLHQF\WKH\DUHPRVWOLNHO\QRWVXI¿FLHQW´WKHDUWLFOH
said. "For instance, increasing maize yields from the
approximately 20% of yield potential in 2010 to 50%
by 2050 implies a doubling of annual yield increases
compared with the past decades. Even then, cereal areas must increase by more than 80% to realize selfVXI¿FLHQF\LQWKHFRXQWULHV7KHUHIRUHWKHSDWKWR
VHOIVXI¿FLHQF\ZLOOOLNHO\UHTXLUHLQDGGLWLRQWR\LHOG
gap closure, increased cropping intensity and expan-

50

sion of irrigated production area in regions that can
support these options in a sustainable manner.
³)DLOXUHWRDFKLHYHWKHVHLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVZLOO
result in increasing dependence on cereal imports and
vast expansion of rainfed cropland area, especially because population in SSA is projected to further increase
between 2050 and 2100 by a factor of 1.9 and anticipated climate change will make the situation even more
FKDOOHQJLQJ,QKLJKOLJKWLQJWKHQHHGIRULQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ
through accelerated yield growth, greater cropping
intensity, and increased irrigated area, we emphasize
the importance of adequate R&D investments by the
public and private sectors, accompanied by facilitating government policies to meet this challenge and to
HQVXUH LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ ZLWKRXW QHJDWLYH HQYLURQPHQtal consequences."
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent. He may be
contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

August 2018 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - August 2018

http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
http://www.nxtbookMEDIA.com