World Grain - August 2018 - 50
FEATURE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA'S FUTURE CHALLENGES
"Estimated cereal demand by 2050 for the 10 countries is 335% of that in 2010 under the medium population projections and projected per capita demand," the
article said. "Population growth alone accounts for approximately three-quarters of this increase and is thus
much more important than per capita increase in demand due to dietary changes.
The article explained that the results for the region
as a whole are unlikely to be better than for the 10
"Results reveal that although yield gap closure on
existing cropland and a large acceleration in yield
said. "For instance, increasing maize yields from the
approximately 20% of yield potential in 2010 to 50%
by 2050 implies a doubling of annual yield increases
compared with the past decades. Even then, cereal areas must increase by more than 80% to realize selfVXI¿FLHQF\LQWKHFRXQWULHV7KHUHIRUHWKHSDWKWR
gap closure, increased cropping intensity and expan-
sion of irrigated production area in regions that can
support these options in a sustainable manner.
result in increasing dependence on cereal imports and
vast expansion of rainfed cropland area, especially because population in SSA is projected to further increase
between 2050 and 2100 by a factor of 1.9 and anticipated climate change will make the situation even more
through accelerated yield growth, greater cropping
intensity, and increased irrigated area, we emphasize
the importance of adequate R&D investments by the
public and private sectors, accompanied by facilitating government policies to meet this challenge and to
HQVXUH LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ ZLWKRXW QHJDWLYH HQYLURQPHQtal consequences."
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent. He may be
contacted at: email@example.com.
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