World Grain - May 2020 - 32

If there's not as many animals to feed, our industry
will respond. We want to make sure our partners
get the assistance they need to remain viable.
Leah Wilkinson, American Feed Industry Association

"A lot of (grain) trade takes place in bulk shipments,"
Schmidhuber said. "It is a highly capital intensive and
highly automatized process with relatively little human
interaction. It will be hard to disrupt bulk shipments.
"There is the possibility that, due to health reasons
and strikes, supply chains could be disrupted. But it's
not likely to impact bulk shipments as strongly as it
would for ship containers or trucks, for instance."
One caveat to this optimistic scenario, Schmidhuber
said, is if several of the world's top grain exporters opt
to limit or even prohibit exports for long periods of
time due to concerns about their domestic food supply.
Already Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, has indicated it will stop exporting wheat through June 30,
the end of the current marketing year.
"There is a growing concentration of stocks held by
IHZHUFRXQWULHV´KHVDLGQRWLQJWKDW¿YHFRXQWULHVKROG
73% of the world's grain, up from 64% during the Great
Recession of 2008-09. "Equally important is that some
of the countries that have the biggest stocks, such as
China and India, are among the biggest stockholders,
and that is a problem for world markets since these countries are not typically as responsive to changes in world
markets as others like the United States and Brazil. That
is a bit of a worry that we should not completely ignore."
Looking at the big picture, Schmidhuber referenced
a recent paper from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) that compared the current crisis to the Great
5HFHVVLRQ7KHELJJHVWGL൵HUHQFHKHVDLGLVWKDWWKH
COVID-19 crisis is truly international in scope, while
the 2008-09 recession mainly impacted the highly developed economies associated with sub-prime mortgage crisis that originated in the United States.
"This is going to be a much bigger contraction than what
ZHVDZGXULQJWKH¿QDQFLDOFULVLV´KHVDLG³7KH,0)¶V
projected cumulative losses are a huge number - about
$9 trillion - which is about 40% of GDP in the US."
However, the IMF also projects a relatively quick
recovery in which global GDP will rebound from minus 3% in 2020 to 5.8% in 2021. The quick rebound
is based on a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by
the latter part of this year, a timetable that most health
experts say may be too optimistic.
Schmidhuber said the IMF is forecasting "an almost
V-shaped recovery relative to the current situation and
to the Great Recession. I think it's telling how the markets reacted to this report as nobody pressed the sell
button. Quite opposite, markets rallied in the US."
www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / May 2020

PLANTING THE CROP
It's unlikely the pandemic will impact planting in the
United States as most inputs were already in place prior
to many of the current COVID-19 protective measures.
The bigger concern would be if the farmers themselves
EHFDPHLOODQGZHUHQRWDEOHWRJHWLQWRWKH¿HOGVVDLG
Bill Field, professor of agricultural and biological engineering at Purdue University. Those involved in agricultural production and their operations could be at a
higher risk than those in an urban setting, he said.
Farmers and ranchers in the United States are older,
many in their 60s and 70s, an age group that is at high
risk for COVID-19 complications. In addition, about
15% to 20% of the farm/ranch population is dealing
with physical limitation or disabilities that increase
their vulnerability to the virus. There is little redundancy or back-up workers for the highly skilled labor force
needed to sustain a high-tech agricultural workplace.
"When key personnel become unable to work due
to illness or are being quarantined due to testing positive for the virus, there is no ready pool of trained replacements to bring in to perform essential production
tasks," Field said. "Contrary to what some political
leaders have suggested, not everyone has the skill set
required to milk cows twice a day, provide health care
WRDÀRFNRIWXUNH\VRUFKLFNHQVDVVLVWLQGL൶FXOWGHliveries of newborn calves, or operate and service the
specialized equipment used on today's farms."
The physical distancing of many farms and ranches
R൵HUV ERWK EHQH¿WV DQG GUDZEDFNV /DFN RI DGHTXDWH
internet service could contribute in delays in receiving
health care information and disease diagnosis. However,
the natural distancing could slow the spread of the virus.
$JULFXOWXUH ZRUNHUV DOVR DUH ¿QGLQJ LW GL൶FXOW WR
¿QG WKH SURWHFWLYH HTXLSPHQW WKH\ QHHG DV VXSSOLHV
are hoarded or diverted to medical workers. Livestock
producers, grain handlers and farmers need equipment
such as respiratory protection, rubber gloves, disinfectants and goggles.
"I don't think the supply ever recognized that we
would have these gaps," Field said. "If a farmer needs
to clean out a bin but he doesn't have a mask, what
does he do? He goes without. There may be consequences from what we're doing today that are going to
be more painful down the road."
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

31


http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - May 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - May 2020

World Grain - May 2020 - 1
World Grain - May 2020 - 2
World Grain - May 2020 - 3
World Grain - May 2020 - 4
World Grain - May 2020 - 5
World Grain - May 2020 - 6
World Grain - May 2020 - 7
World Grain - May 2020 - 8
World Grain - May 2020 - 9
World Grain - May 2020 - 10
World Grain - May 2020 - 11
World Grain - May 2020 - 12
World Grain - May 2020 - 13
World Grain - May 2020 - 14
World Grain - May 2020 - 15
World Grain - May 2020 - 16
World Grain - May 2020 - 17
World Grain - May 2020 - 18
World Grain - May 2020 - 19
World Grain - May 2020 - 20
World Grain - May 2020 - 21
World Grain - May 2020 - 22
World Grain - May 2020 - 23
World Grain - May 2020 - 24
World Grain - May 2020 - 25
World Grain - May 2020 - 26
World Grain - May 2020 - 27
World Grain - May 2020 - 28
World Grain - May 2020 - 29
World Grain - May 2020 - 30
World Grain - May 2020 - 31
World Grain - May 2020 - 32
World Grain - May 2020 - 33
World Grain - May 2020 - 34
World Grain - May 2020 - 35
World Grain - May 2020 - 36
World Grain - May 2020 - 37
World Grain - May 2020 - 38
World Grain - May 2020 - 39
World Grain - May 2020 - 40
World Grain - May 2020 - 41
World Grain - May 2020 - 42
World Grain - May 2020 - 43
World Grain - May 2020 - 44
World Grain - May 2020 - 45
World Grain - May 2020 - 46
World Grain - May 2020 - 47
World Grain - May 2020 - 48
World Grain - May 2020 - 49
World Grain - May 2020 - 50
World Grain - May 2020 - 51
World Grain - May 2020 - 52
World Grain - May 2020 - 53
World Grain - May 2020 - 54
World Grain - May 2020 - 55
World Grain - May 2020 - 56
World Grain - May 2020 - 57
World Grain - May 2020 - 58
World Grain - May 2020 - 59
World Grain - May 2020 - 60
World Grain - May 2020 - 61
World Grain - May 2020 - 62
World Grain - May 2020 - 63
World Grain - May 2020 - 64
World Grain - May 2020 - 65
World Grain - May 2020 - 66
World Grain - May 2020 - 67
World Grain - May 2020 - 68
World Grain - May 2020 - 69
World Grain - May 2020 - 70
World Grain - May 2020 - 71
World Grain - May 2020 - 72
World Grain - May 2020 - 73
World Grain - May 2020 - 74
World Grain - May 2020 - 75
World Grain - May 2020 - 76
World Grain - May 2020 - 77
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com