World Grain - June 2020 - 60

LOWERS FLOUR EXPORT FORECAST FOR 2019-20
Global trade is projected to be 5% lower than the previous year

D

ue to reduced shipments to a number of destinations, including Near East Asia and Far East Asia,
the International Grains Council (IGC) is foreFDVWLQJDVOLJKWGHFOLQHLQJOREDOÀRXUH[SRUWV
from its January estimate.
In its report, released on April 30, the IGC forecast
trade at 14.8 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), down
5% from the 2018-19 total. If realized, it would be
well below the record outgo of 17.6 million tonnes in
2016-17.
At 2.2 million tonnes, Afghanistan is forecast to
RQFHDJDLQEHWKHZRUOG¶VWRSÀRXULPSRUWHUIROORZHG
by Iraq at 1.9 million tonnes. Both totals are down
about 300,000 tonnes compared to the previous year.
Uzbekistan and Brazil are tied for third at a projected
600,000 tonnes of imports each.
"In Near East Asia, better local harvests are containing imports by Iraq and Syria," the IGC said. "However,
the number for Syria is moved up slightly from last
time, while Iraq has indicated that additional imports
are required ahead of the harvest to bolster reserves.
7KLVFRXOGLQFOXGHÀRXUDVZHOODVPLOOLQJZKHDW´
The IGC added: "Imports by Afghanistan and
Uzbekistan are short of a year ago, constrained
E\ D WLJKWHU H[SRUW VXUSOXV LQ WKHLU PDMRU VXSSOLHU
Kazakhstan, and with little evidence as yet that they
are turning to alternative origins."
The IGC noted that while there also wer downward adjustments for imports to the Philippines (from
180,000 tonnes to 100,000) and other small markets,
total shipments to sub-Saharan Africa are still on

60

course to match the previous year's total of 2.03 million tonnes.
7KH ÀRXU H[SRUW VLGH LV RQFH DJDLQ GRPLQDWHG E\
Turkey, which is forecast at 5.3 million tonnes in 201920, up 100,000 tonnes from the January estimate and
VLJQL¿FDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ ODVW \HDU¶V WRWDO RI  PLOlion tonnes.
5DQNHG VHFRQG LV .D]DNKVWDQ SURMHFWHG WR H[SRUW
2 million tonnes, unchanged from the January report.
7KH ,*& QRWHG WKDW .D]DNKVWDQ¶V IRUHFDVW ÀRXU VKLSments for 2019-20 are the least since 2007-08 following a disappointing local harvest.
"In order to preserve domestic supplies, Kazakhstan
LQWURGXFHGH[SRUWOLPLWVIRU$SULODQG0D\LQFOXGLQJ
IRUZKHDWDQGÀRXUWKRXJKWKHVKLSPHQWFDSPD\EH
removed in June," the IGC said.
$UJHQWLQDLVIRUHFDVWWRUDQNWKLUGLQÀRXU
H[SRUWVDWWRQQHVZKLFKZRXOGEHXSVOLJKWO\
from 876,000 tonnes last year.
Looking ahead to 2020-21, the IGC's initial projecWLRQLVIRUDLQFUHDVHLQZRUOGZKHDWÀRXUWUDGHWR
15.1 million tonnes, including some recovery in purchases by Afghanistan and Uzbekistan.
³7KLV DVVXPHV WKDW H[SRUW DYDLODELOLWLHV DUH PRUH
ample in Kazakhstan," the IGC said.
The IGC did not comment on what impact, if any, the
coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis was having on wheat
ÀRXUWUDGH
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

June 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

©constantinos - stock.adobe.com

by Arvin Donley


http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - June 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - June 2020

World Grain - June 2020 - 1
World Grain - June 2020 - 1
World Grain - June 2020 - 2
World Grain - June 2020 - 3
World Grain - June 2020 - 4
World Grain - June 2020 - 5
World Grain - June 2020 - 6
World Grain - June 2020 - 7
World Grain - June 2020 - 8
World Grain - June 2020 - 9
World Grain - June 2020 - 10
World Grain - June 2020 - 11
World Grain - June 2020 - 12
World Grain - June 2020 - 13
World Grain - June 2020 - 14
World Grain - June 2020 - 15
World Grain - June 2020 - 16
World Grain - June 2020 - 17
World Grain - June 2020 - 18
World Grain - June 2020 - 19
World Grain - June 2020 - 20
World Grain - June 2020 - 21
World Grain - June 2020 - 22
World Grain - June 2020 - 23
World Grain - June 2020 - 24
World Grain - June 2020 - 25
World Grain - June 2020 - 26
World Grain - June 2020 - 27
World Grain - June 2020 - 28
World Grain - June 2020 - 29
World Grain - June 2020 - 30
World Grain - June 2020 - 31
World Grain - June 2020 - 32
World Grain - June 2020 - 33
World Grain - June 2020 - 34
World Grain - June 2020 - 35
World Grain - June 2020 - 36
World Grain - June 2020 - 37
World Grain - June 2020 - 38
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World Grain - June 2020 - 40
World Grain - June 2020 - 41
World Grain - June 2020 - 42
World Grain - June 2020 - 43
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World Grain - June 2020 - 84
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
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