World Grain - July 2020 - 38

FEATURE: SHIPPING'S PERFECT STORM

seen as muted," Sand said. Grains, he said, could be the
"swing factor" depending on harvesting in key regions.
"Volumes may not change much, but distance could,
DQGWKDWZRXOGEHQH¿WWKHPDUNHW´KHDGGHG
BEARS OVER BULLS
Yet outweighing the positives, Sand believes macroeconomics are against vessel owners.
"Above all, globalization and trade relations are under attack and relations (between the United States and
China have) further soured under COVID-19," he said.
"Both factors are reducing demand for shipping."
As a result, he views the outlook for the dry bulk
market from a vessel owner's perspective as decidedly
"bleak," with low freight and charter rates likely to prevail for an extended period, not least because BIMCO
IRUHFDVWVGU\EXONÀHHWJURZWKRIWKLV\HDUZKLOH
the demand outlook remains tepid.
"The dry bulk market depends on global economic
growth and with the current prospect of declining demand in 2020, the dry bulk outlook remains lackluster
for the rest of the year," he told World Grain. "We expect rates for all dry bulk sectors to trend lower in 2020

from last year. Demand is falling at about the same
SDFH DV LQ  %XW RQH RI WKH GL൵HUHQFHV WKLV WLPH
around is that the balance is far worse going into 2020
than when we headed into 2009.
"Gradually recovering at a slow pace is not good
IRU DQ\ VHFWRU$OO ZRUN GRQH WR UHGXFH WKH ÀHHW ZLOO
EH H൵HFWIXO EXW ZKR ZLOO WDNH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ DQG
cut capacity?"
Sharan is more optimistic.
"As the economic activity comes back slowly in Asia
and it will eventually come back to normal in other
parts of the world, despite the continued threat, I think
we should see a better shipping market in 2021," he
said. "I am expecting a sharp rebound. I still think rates
should rebound in 2021."
Michael King is a multi-award-winning journalist as well as
a shipping and logistics consultant. He also supplies an array
of corporate services - www.mkingassociates.com. For more
information, email mikeking121@gmail.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

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38

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July 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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World Grain - July 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2020

World Grain - July 2020 - 1
World Grain - July 2020 - 1
World Grain - July 2020 - 2
World Grain - July 2020 - 3
World Grain - July 2020 - 4
World Grain - July 2020 - 5
World Grain - July 2020 - 6
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_07_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
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