World Grain - September 2020 - 18

GRAINMARKET REVIEW

COARSE

GRAINS
Storm could change US
corn crop outlook

Monthly corn prices
(US dollars per tonne)

200

150

100

50

by Chris Lyddon

6WURQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOGHPDQGKDVNHSWFRUQSULFHV¿UPGHVSLWH
forecast large US yields. However, a major storm in producing
areas has added uncertainty, fueling predictions that production
may be revised lower.
In its Market Perspectives report of Aug. 13, the US Grains
Council (USGC) reported "widespread fund buying emerged following the August WASDE report," in the corn market.
³:KLOHWKH:$6'(FRQ¿UPHGUHFRUGODUJH86FRUQ\LHOGVDQG
ODUJHHQGLQJVWRFNVNH\WHFKQLFDOVXSSRUWKHOG¿UPIROORZLQJWKH
report's release, triggering technical buying and short covering,"
the USGC said.
The USGC said the WASDE report put the average US corn
yield at a record 11.417 tonnes per hectare, bringing 2020-21 production to 388.08 million tonnes. The USDA also increased its
forecast for the world corn crop by 7.8 million tonnes, to 1.171
billion. The USGC also highlighted a 500,000-tonne increase in
forecast Ukrainian production of corn and a 2-million-tonne rise
for the EU's crop, to 25 million tonnes.
³:KLOHWKH:$6'(FRQ¿UPHGODUJH86SURGXFWLRQDQGVXSplies, there are factors suggesting future estimates may decline,"
WKH 86*& VDLG ³7KH ¿UVW LV WKH µGHUHFKR¶ ZHDWKHU HYHQW WKDW
brought 100-mph winds to parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois and
Indiana."
There were estimates suggesting that 40% of Iowa farmland
KDGEHHQD൵HFWHG
"The event was not factored into USDA's August WASDE as
it occurred after the survey period ended," the USGC said, citing
private estimates that it could have reduced US corn production
by 5 million to 10 million tonnes. A week later, in the Aug. 20
edition of its Market Perspectives report, the USGC said of the
corn market that "producers have been aggressive sellers on the
recent rally, selling both any lingering old crop stocks as well as
making new crop sales."
"Despite the increase in farm sales, basis has remained largely
steady or higher as strong export demand has left exporters and
grain elevators needing to buy grain," the USGC said.
In its Aug. 14 Feed Outlook Report, the USDA's Economic
Research Service (ERS) reported that "growing conditions were
largely mixed across most of the Northern Hemisphere," with the
department now predicting 2020-21 world coarse grains output at
1.464 billion tonnes, up 6.3 million from its previous projection.
18

0

Jan 20

Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20

Jul 20

Maize (US), No. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports
US Department of Agriculture and World Bank

"Foreign coarse grain production (global minus US. output) for
2020-21 is projected 2 million tonnes lower this month at 1.062
billion tonnes, though 16 million tonnes higher than a year ago,"
the ERS said. "The United States coarse grain output increased
2%, with upward yield revisions for corn, sorghum, and barley.
"The largest change in coarse grain output this month is a
reduction for the (EU), where persistent dryness and high temperatures in the two opposite 'corners' of the region, France and
southeastern Romania, limit yield prospects for corn and barley.
France and Romania are the two largest EU corn producers and
exporters, while France is also the top barley producer."
Romania's corn output is projected at 12.8 million tonnes,
down 1.1 million, while French corn is expected to reach 14.2
million tonnes, down 500,000 month-over-month, the ERS said.
In its July 23 Grain Market Report, the International Grains
Council (IGC) said corn prices were up by 4% month-overmonth, but still 8% down from the same time a year earlier.
"Brisk export activity underpinned values in South America,
with more general price support stemming from a much smaller
86FURS¿JXUHDQGDFRQVHTXHQWVOLJKWO\WLJKWHUJOREDOVXSSO\
outlook," the IGC said.
Barley was up by 5% month-over-month, "despite sluggish export demand and subdued market sentiment amid ongoing uncertainty due to the sustained spread of COVID-19," the IGC said,
also citing support from Saudi Arabian buying.
)RUVRUJKXPWKH,*&UHSRUWHG86*XOITXRWDWLRQVGRZQSDUWly because of weaker export basis levels, but added that the move
was "despite some support from solid export sales to China."
:KLOHH[SRUWTXRWDWLRQVLQ$UJHQWLQDZHUHXQFKDQJHGWKHUH
ZDVDIDOOLQH[SRUWTXRWDWLRQVLQ$XVWUDOLD³SUHVVXUHGE\SURVSHFWVIRUDELJJHUKDUYHVWDPLGVODFNH[SRUWGHPDQGDQGVWL൵LQternational export competition."
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to
worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

September 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - September 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - September 2020

World Grain - September 2020 - 1
World Grain - September 2020 - 1
World Grain - September 2020 - 2
World Grain - September 2020 - 3
World Grain - September 2020 - 4
World Grain - September 2020 - 5
World Grain - September 2020 - 6
World Grain - September 2020 - 7
World Grain - September 2020 - 8
World Grain - September 2020 - 9
World Grain - September 2020 - 10
World Grain - September 2020 - 11
World Grain - September 2020 - 12
World Grain - September 2020 - 13
World Grain - September 2020 - 14
World Grain - September 2020 - 15
World Grain - September 2020 - 16
World Grain - September 2020 - 17
World Grain - September 2020 - 18
World Grain - September 2020 - 19
World Grain - September 2020 - 20
World Grain - September 2020 - 21
World Grain - September 2020 - 22
World Grain - September 2020 - 23
World Grain - September 2020 - 24
World Grain - September 2020 - 25
World Grain - September 2020 - 26
World Grain - September 2020 - 27
World Grain - September 2020 - 28
World Grain - September 2020 - 29
World Grain - September 2020 - 30
World Grain - September 2020 - 31
World Grain - September 2020 - 32
World Grain - September 2020 - 33
World Grain - September 2020 - 34
World Grain - September 2020 - 35
World Grain - September 2020 - 36
World Grain - September 2020 - 37
World Grain - September 2020 - 38
World Grain - September 2020 - 39
World Grain - September 2020 - 40
World Grain - September 2020 - 41
World Grain - September 2020 - 42
World Grain - September 2020 - 43
World Grain - September 2020 - 44
World Grain - September 2020 - 45
World Grain - September 2020 - 46
World Grain - September 2020 - 47
World Grain - September 2020 - 48
World Grain - September 2020 - 49
World Grain - September 2020 - 50
World Grain - September 2020 - 51
World Grain - September 2020 - 52
World Grain - September 2020 - 53
World Grain - September 2020 - 54
World Grain - September 2020 - 55
World Grain - September 2020 - 56
World Grain - September 2020 - 57
World Grain - September 2020 - 58
World Grain - September 2020 - 59
World Grain - September 2020 - 60
World Grain - September 2020 - 61
World Grain - September 2020 - 62
World Grain - September 2020 - 63
World Grain - September 2020 - 64
World Grain - September 2020 - 65
World Grain - September 2020 - 66
World Grain - September 2020 - 67
World Grain - September 2020 - 68
World Grain - September 2020 - 69
World Grain - September 2020 - 70
World Grain - September 2020 - 71
World Grain - September 2020 - 72
World Grain - September 2020 - 73
World Grain - September 2020 - 74
World Grain - September 2020 - 75
World Grain - September 2020 - 76
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com