World Grain - October 2020 - 30

crop means lower EU grains exports
Forecasts call for trade data to be well down in 2020-21
by Chris Lyddon

A

series of weather problems throughout the
growing season has left Europe with a sharply
reduced grains crop. EU grains exports are set to
be well down in 2020-21, with the UK, now out of the
EU, but trading as a member until the end of 2020, in
particular, set to import an increased quantity of wheat.
On the oilseeds side, the question of crisis resilience,
in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic,
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Figures from the European grain trade group
COCERAL, released on Aug. 24, put the EU-27 plus
UK wheat crop in 2020 at 129.1 million tonnes, down
from its previous forecast of 129.7 million, which was
issued June 8. It compares with the previous year's
crop of 146.8 million tonnes.
³6LJQL¿FDQW GRZQZDUG UHYLVLRQV LQ )UDQFH DQG WKH
%DONDQ FRXQWULHV DUH QRW FRPSOHWHO\ R൵VHW E\ XSward revisions in Poland, the Baltic countries, and
Scandinavia," COCERAL said.
France's total crop of wheat in 2020 is now forecast
at 29.704 million tonnes, down from 39.542 million in
2019.
Year-on-year, another big loser is the UK, which, according to COCERAL, will see its crop fall to 10.003
million tonnes from 16.278 million tonnes in 2019.
The result is set to be a big fall in EU exports of grain
during 2020-21, with the International Grains Council,
in its Grain Market Report of July 23, putting shipments out of the EU at 35.9 million tonnes, compared
with 49.8 million in 2019-20.
A joint statement by France Agri Mer, Arvalis and
Terres Inovia, issued on Aug. 6, explained that the
problems for France's grain crop started early with
abundant and frequent autumn rain, which made sow30

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up with sowing dates spread out to an unprecedented
extent, which meant big variations in crop development. The area of soft wheat was down 13% as of Aug.
1, and that of barley was down by 7%.
Drought hit the French crop in the spring, with varying
consequences, according to the condition of the plants
DQGWKHVRLO7KHGU\ZHDWKHUGLGKDYHWKHSRVLWLYHH൵HFW
of reducing disease pressure and harvesting largely took
place in good conditions, France Agri Mer said.
GERMAN FORECAST BELOW AVERAGE
Germany's farm union, Deutscher Bauernverband, issued its own crop forecast on Aug. 18, putting grains
output at 42.4 million tonnes, or 5% under the 2015-19
average. It pointed out that the country had seen the
third year of extreme weather.
For winter wheat, the most important arable crop on
German farms, the union reported a drastic fall in area
of almost 300,000 hectares to 2.8 million, with the harvest reaching 21.1 million tonnes, compared with 22.8
million the year before.
On the demand side, the European Commission's
Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural
Development (DG AGRI) is expecting to see a rebound
in 2020-21.
"With human consumption of staple food (including
cereals) less elastic than for other food, the COVID-19
crisis is not expected to have a long-lasting impact on
overall demand for cereals for food use," the DG's
Analysis and Outlook Unit said in the summer edition of its "Short-Term Outlook for EU Agricultural
Markets in 2020" report, published July 6.
Lower 2020-21 production is projected "despite good
October 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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World Grain - October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - October 2020

World Grain - October 2020 - 1
World Grain - October 2020 - 1
World Grain - October 2020 - 2
World Grain - October 2020 - 3
World Grain - October 2020 - 4
World Grain - October 2020 - 5
World Grain - October 2020 - 6
World Grain - October 2020 - 7
World Grain - October 2020 - 8
World Grain - October 2020 - 9
World Grain - October 2020 - 10
World Grain - October 2020 - 11
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
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