World Grain - November 2020 - 22

COUNTRY FOCUS

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000

Production *Estimated **Projected

2020-21**

2019-20*

2018-19

2017-18

Exports

2016-17

0

2015-16

WG_Nov20.indb 22

(in 1,000 tonnes)

35,000

2014-15

22	

Australian wheat production, exports

2013-14

barley exports were 3 million tonnes, 1.5 million feed and 1.5
million malting.
For sorghum, 2020-21 exports are now forecast at 250,000
tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 330,000, compared
with 72,000 the year before. Exports of oats are forecast at
250,000 tonnes, an unchanged figure, with the previous year
at 185,000 tonnes.
The IGC forecast Australia's 2021 rice exports at 100,000
tonnes and does not give a figure for 2020. It expects the country's rice production to rebound to 186,000 tonnes in 2020-21,
from 37,000 the year before, although it notes that this level is
"significantly below past peaks as rice continues to compete
with alternative crops for water allocations."
Australia's 2020-21 rapeseed production is forecast at 3.3
million tonnes, up from the previous forecast of 3.2 million
and compared with the previous year's crop at 2.3 million.
Its rapeseed exports are forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, an unchanged figure, and up from 2019-20 rapeseed exports of 1.7
million tonnes.
"Beneficial and widespread rainfall in early 2020 has increased prospects for a good start to the Australian grain sowing season," the USDA attaché explained in an annual report
on the grains sector dated April 21. "This follows two years of
below-average grain crops as a result of drought conditions in
eastern Australia."
The report outlined the big regional difference in wheat supply and use and supply chains between Western/South Australia and eastern Australia.
"The wheat industries in Western Australia and South Australia are almost completely export focused, and typically
more than 85% of the wheat production in these two states is
exported," the USDA said.
"This is because there is limited domestic consumption of
wheat (such as flour milling and intensive livestock production) in these areas," the agency added. "For example, although these two states account for well over half of wheat
production, they also account for just over 10% of cattle production. Much of the wheat growing areas in these states are
close to export ports, and the infrastructure and supply chains
in these states are directed toward exports."
The report explains that six of the seven largest wheat export ports are in those two states.
"In addition, in South Australia especially, export infrastructure continues to expand, such as a new facility on the
Eyre Peninsula which is about to come online and will be
used to transship grain into large vessels for export," according to the report. "Finally, because of the strong export focus
and low storage prices from the major bulk handlers, there
has not been extensive expansion of on-farm storage in these
two states."
Eastern wheat growing regions such as New South Wales
and Queensland, however, are much more domestically focused, the attaché said.
"Only about one-third of the wheat grown in these states
is exported (and during the drought exports have been nearly

Source: US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service

non-existent), and there is much greater domestic grain use,"
the USDA said.
Those two states have the majority of Australia's feed lots
and much of its milling sector.
"Also, because of the robust domestic demand here and
more marketing options, there has been a very strong increase
in the construction of on-farm storage, and total storage (bulk
and on-farm) in these regions now greatly exceeds typical
harvest volumes," the USDA said. "Industry expectations are
that the strong domestic demand for wheat in eastern Australia, especially from the livestock industries, will continue
in the long term and so any future expansion in wheat exports
from Australia will likely need to come from Western and
South Australia.
"Victoria is the other major wheat producing state and is a
mix of these two regions, with some milling and wheat feed
consumption, but also strong exports. Typically, about half of
wheat in Victoria is exported."
For wheat, the report explains that this year "higher production coupled with reduced feed demand would allow for greater
export availability, and Australian wheat is expected to return in
greater quantities to some key Southeast Asian markets."
"Exports are also likely to be supported by a continued
weak Australian dollar compared to the US dollar," the USDA
said. "Australia is typically between the fourth and sixth largest wheat exporter in the world.
"Second, although wheat yields were poor last year, barley
yields were actually about average for Australia as a whole.
This was due to a bumper barley crop in Victoria, and key barley areas in Western Australia having relatively better growing seasons than the wheat areas.
"There is a limited amount of barley used in ethanol production in one plant in Australia, although sorghum is the primary feedstock in that facility."
November 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

11/2/2020 4:07:50 PM


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World Grain - November 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2020

World Grain - November 2020 - 1
World Grain - November 2020 - 1
World Grain - November 2020 - 2
World Grain - November 2020 - 3
World Grain - November 2020 - 4
World Grain - November 2020 - 5
World Grain - November 2020 - 6
World Grain - November 2020 - 7
World Grain - November 2020 - 8
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