World Grain - November 2020 - 64

Drying trend possible over the next three years in key grain production areas

N

orth America grain, oilseed and pulse production
in 2020 was amazingly good given the environment that some crops were given to develop in.
Drought impacted a huge part of the continent this year
extending from the heart of Canada's Prairies through
the northern and western US Plains and all of the far
western states into northern Mexico. World Weather,
Inc. is concerned that this year's dryness is a foreshadow of more drying that eventually will bring hardship
to farmers in the continent and perhaps the same may
come to other parts of the world in the years 2021-23.
Just what we need after all the struggles of 2020 is
some forecaster standing over the marketplace beating
his chest implying drought years are ahead. Do we really
know enough about the world's weather to make such a
blatant statement? Probably not, but the statistics speak
for themselves. The one thing farmers have going for
them that no other producers in the history of man has
had is the genetics that can help crops cope with dryness
much better than 30 or 40 years ago. To a large degree,
the success of this year's crops can be attributed to the
combination of improved seed genetics, favorable subsoil moisture and some well-timed rain events that gave
crops just enough moisture to carry on development
without losing too much yield. Sure, there were some
low yields noted in many areas from Canada into the
western Corn Belt and a part of the US Great Plains, but
it could have been much worse.
Weather is cyclical. You can find a multiplicity of
patterns playing out at the same time on any given day
of the year, but each of those patterns has a different period of repetition so that it is rare for all of the patterns
to line up the same way they did decades ago to induce
the same level of weather extreme that occurred once
before. It is much like going to the casino and pull-

64	

WG_Nov20.indb 64

ing the arm of a slot machine and matching the pattern
of wheels spinning in the window. The odds of getting
similar symbols to line up in the slot window are very
low, which is why most folks lose their money. The
weather can be similar with each of the patterns of repetition repeating at different periods and it is difficult to
get them all to line up as they did once before. But the
theory of chaos says the more times you spin the slot
machine and the more times you let the weather patterns repeat, the more likely they are to line up as they
did once before.
It has been a long time since North America has dealt
with multiple years of drought. These periods of dryness
that last years instead of months were noted periodically
in the late 1800s, the 1930s, 1950s and to some degree
in the 1980s. Despite climate change theories and the
lack of seeing dry years return in multiplicity, they will
return again and World Weather, Inc. believes the stage
for such an event may be evolving now. North America
has recently left behind one of the wettest periods in history and upon exiting that period we have seen much
less precipitation impact North America, especially in
this past year. Drought does exist in Canada's Prairies,
Mexico and most of the western United States, and with
La Niña around this winter the odds are very good that
some of these drier-biased areas will not get adequate
moisture replenishment prior to spring.
Coming into spring with poor soil moisture is always
a bad omen, especially if temperatures turn warmer
than usual early in the growing season and rainfall remains below average. It does not take long in the spring
for such a drier bias to get out of control and once moisture shortages are present during the warm season, it is
very difficult, although not impossible, to get the soil
replenished with moisture once again.

©kurapy - stock.adobe.com

by Drew Lerner

November 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

11/2/2020 4:16:01 PM


http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - November 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2020

World Grain - November 2020 - 1
World Grain - November 2020 - 1
World Grain - November 2020 - 2
World Grain - November 2020 - 3
World Grain - November 2020 - 4
World Grain - November 2020 - 5
World Grain - November 2020 - 6
World Grain - November 2020 - 7
World Grain - November 2020 - 8
World Grain - November 2020 - 9
World Grain - November 2020 - 10
World Grain - November 2020 - 11
World Grain - November 2020 - 12
World Grain - November 2020 - 13
World Grain - November 2020 - 14
World Grain - November 2020 - 15
World Grain - November 2020 - 16
World Grain - November 2020 - 17
World Grain - November 2020 - 18
World Grain - November 2020 - 19
World Grain - November 2020 - 20
World Grain - November 2020 - 21
World Grain - November 2020 - 22
World Grain - November 2020 - 23
World Grain - November 2020 - 24
World Grain - November 2020 - 25
World Grain - November 2020 - 26
World Grain - November 2020 - 27
World Grain - November 2020 - 28
World Grain - November 2020 - 29
World Grain - November 2020 - 30
World Grain - November 2020 - 31
World Grain - November 2020 - 32
World Grain - November 2020 - 33
World Grain - November 2020 - 34
World Grain - November 2020 - 35
World Grain - November 2020 - 36
World Grain - November 2020 - 37
World Grain - November 2020 - 38
World Grain - November 2020 - 39
World Grain - November 2020 - 40
World Grain - November 2020 - 41
World Grain - November 2020 - 42
World Grain - November 2020 - 43
World Grain - November 2020 - 44
World Grain - November 2020 - 45
World Grain - November 2020 - 46
World Grain - November 2020 - 47
World Grain - November 2020 - 48
World Grain - November 2020 - 49
World Grain - November 2020 - 50
World Grain - November 2020 - 51
World Grain - November 2020 - 52
World Grain - November 2020 - 53
World Grain - November 2020 - 54
World Grain - November 2020 - 55
World Grain - November 2020 - 56
World Grain - November 2020 - 57
World Grain - November 2020 - 58
World Grain - November 2020 - 59
World Grain - November 2020 - 60
World Grain - November 2020 - 61
World Grain - November 2020 - 62
World Grain - November 2020 - 63
World Grain - November 2020 - 64
World Grain - November 2020 - 65
World Grain - November 2020 - 66
World Grain - November 2020 - 67
World Grain - November 2020 - 68
World Grain - November 2020 - 69
World Grain - November 2020 - 70
World Grain - November 2020 - 71
World Grain - November 2020 - 72
World Grain - November 2020 - 73
World Grain - November 2020 - 74
World Grain - November 2020 - 75
World Grain - November 2020 - 76
World Grain - November 2020 - 77
World Grain - November 2020 - 78
World Grain - November 2020 - 79
World Grain - November 2020 - 80
World Grain - November 2020 - 81
World Grain - November 2020 - 82
World Grain - November 2020 - 83
World Grain - November 2020 - 84
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
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