World Grain - November 2021 - 52

FEATURE: RUSSIAN FARMERS UNHAPPY WITH NEW RESTRICTIONS
In the context of price swings on the global market,
some analysts said the export duty has begun working
against the Russian government, pushing farmers
to hold on to grain and wait for higher prices. Eduard
Zernin, chairman of the Russian Union of Grain
Exporters, said the grain market was overheated by
farmers who decided to save grain in their warehouses
to wait and see where the price rally would end.
Less money, fewer export markets
The current restrictions appear to be a tough burden for
Russian grain farmers. In 2021, the Russian export duty
is expected to cost them around $2 billion, including
$1.8 billion to wheat farmers, research conducted by the
Russian consulting agency IKAR showed. The losses are
impacting some regions of the country more than others.
" On the Russian south, even despite the export duty,
Dmitry Rylko,
IKAR, said
export duties
are hurting
Russian grain
producers.
grain farmers managed to earn good money since the
prices went up, " said Dmitry Rylko, general director
of IKAR. " On the other hand, this increase to a large
extent has been eroded by rising production costs. "
The picture is less attractive in other parts of
the country. For example, in the Volga region, due
to drought and some other problems, the average
yield dropped compared to the previous year. Local
farmers had to deal with the same rise of production
costs but not the same level of production to
mitigate this increase, according to IKAR.
Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, expects
the duties to cost $4 billion to Russian farmers.
SovEcon said the country's wheat harvest is projected
to drop by 12%, or 10 million tonnes, from last year
despite record-high plantings. To some extent, the production
decline is attributed to the export duty since
farmers are not rushing to increase plantings.
The floating duty doesn't
help with exports. We have
already practically lost the
Egyptian market, the part
of it that was provided by
GASC tenders.
Dmitry Rylko, general director, IKAR
Additionally, Russia's status as the world's largest
wheat exporter appears in jeopardy. Rylko said the EU-27
is expected to export more wheat than Russia this year.
" The floating duty doesn't help with exports, " Rylko
said. " We have already practically lost the Egyptian market,
the part of it that was provided by GASC tenders. "
It is highly likely that Russia will lose its status as the
world's largest wheat exporter this season, said Alexander
Korbut, vice president of the Russian Grain Union.
In 2020, Korbut said the export restriction embarked
on by the Russian government prompted some importers
to refrain from buying Russian grain. When the
government relayed its plans to introduce the export
quotas, Bangladesh, for example, promised it would
not buy any grain from Russia in the future.
" There are still risks (with Russian grain exports),
including those associated with export duty, " Korbut
said. " There is a question what will happen next. "
He added that the domestic prices are not expected to
fall and grain farmers are not rushing to sell their stocks.
In 2020-21, Russia collected 133.5 million tonnes of
grain, less than 2 million tonnes below the all-time record
of 135.4 million tonnes. The Russian Agricultural
Ministry forecasts this year's grain harvest to total
127.4 million tonnes, including 81 million tonnes
of wheat.
On average, the Russian grain farmers are predicted
to experience a 40% decline in revenue on the 2021-22
season, the Russian Grain Union estimated. The less profitable
companies could find themselves below the breakeven
point. However, almost all companies would have
to revise their budgets. Korbut said most Russian farmers
52
November 2021 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Photo by Chris Lyddon
http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - November 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2021

World Grain - November 2021 - Intro
World Grain - November 2021 - 1
World Grain - November 2021 - 2
World Grain - November 2021 - 3
World Grain - November 2021 - 4
World Grain - November 2021 - 5
World Grain - November 2021 - 6
World Grain - November 2021 - 7
World Grain - November 2021 - 8
World Grain - November 2021 - 9
World Grain - November 2021 - 10
World Grain - November 2021 - 11
World Grain - November 2021 - 12
World Grain - November 2021 - 13
World Grain - November 2021 - 14
World Grain - November 2021 - 15
World Grain - November 2021 - 16
World Grain - November 2021 - 17
World Grain - November 2021 - 18
World Grain - November 2021 - 19
World Grain - November 2021 - 20
World Grain - November 2021 - 21
World Grain - November 2021 - 22
World Grain - November 2021 - 23
World Grain - November 2021 - 24
World Grain - November 2021 - 25
World Grain - November 2021 - 26
World Grain - November 2021 - 27
World Grain - November 2021 - 28
World Grain - November 2021 - 29
World Grain - November 2021 - 30
World Grain - November 2021 - 31
World Grain - November 2021 - 32
World Grain - November 2021 - 33
World Grain - November 2021 - 34
World Grain - November 2021 - 35
World Grain - November 2021 - 36
World Grain - November 2021 - 37
World Grain - November 2021 - 38
World Grain - November 2021 - 39
World Grain - November 2021 - 40
World Grain - November 2021 - 41
World Grain - November 2021 - 42
World Grain - November 2021 - 43
World Grain - November 2021 - 44
World Grain - November 2021 - 45
World Grain - November 2021 - 46
World Grain - November 2021 - 47
World Grain - November 2021 - 48
World Grain - November 2021 - 49
World Grain - November 2021 - 50
World Grain - November 2021 - 51
World Grain - November 2021 - 52
World Grain - November 2021 - 53
World Grain - November 2021 - 54
World Grain - November 2021 - 55
World Grain - November 2021 - 56
World Grain - November 2021 - 57
World Grain - November 2021 - 58
World Grain - November 2021 - 59
World Grain - November 2021 - 60
World Grain - November 2021 - 61
World Grain - November 2021 - 62
World Grain - November 2021 - 63
World Grain - November 2021 - 64
World Grain - November 2021 - 65
World Grain - November 2021 - 66
World Grain - November 2021 - 67
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World Grain - November 2021 - 69
World Grain - November 2021 - 70
World Grain - November 2021 - 71
World Grain - November 2021 - 72
World Grain - November 2021 - 73
World Grain - November 2021 - 74
World Grain - November 2021 - 75
World Grain - November 2021 - 76
World Grain - November 2021 - 77
World Grain - November 2021 - 78
World Grain - November 2021 - 79
World Grain - November 2021 - 80
World Grain - November 2021 - 81
World Grain - November 2021 - 82
World Grain - November 2021 - 83
World Grain - November 2021 - 84
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