World Grain - November 2021 - 70

FEATURE: TROUBLE BREWING IN RUSSIA?
GRACE-based shallow groundwater drought indicator
Oct. 25,2021
fall in a part of the nation during the summer of 2022.
An upper-air wind flow pattern already is expected to
be somewhat unfavorable for abundant rainfall during
the late spring and summer in the New Lands next year,
although this area is farther east of where the greatest
groundwater shortage exists today. The bottom line is
that the situation warrants a close watch.
Winter weather in western Russia is expected to
be colder biased at times, and precipitation could be
greater than usual in the Black and Caspian Sea areas,
which might help replenish some of the low groundwater.
However, if the ground freezes up before the
precipitation pattern increases, frost in the soil will prevent
the snow from melting into the ground as well as
it might otherwise, leaving the moisture deficits deep
in the ground.
2
5 10 20 30 70 80 90 95 98
Wetness percentile
ship on the grain and oilseed production areas west of
the Ural Mountains in 2010. It just so happened that the
two-year La Niña event also occurred shortly after the
solar minimum in 2008.
World Weather, Inc. believes multi-year La Niña
events that follow the solar minimum usually result
in some dryness in at least a part of central and western
Asia. A similar condition tends to occur in central
North America, and that is one of the reasons why
World Weather, Inc. believes a third year of drought
will impact the western United States and drought may
expand into the Great Plains and possibly a part of the
western US Corn Belt in 2022.
La Niña-induced dryness in Russia does not always
occur with enough intensity to seriously thwart crop
production. Last year's La Niña event was thought to
have played at least a small role in the lighter-than-usual
rainfall this year in the eastern New Lands, hurting some
of its spring wheat and sunseed production. The most
significant dryness associated with La Niña events tends
to occur as the multi-year event comes to an end, and
that may be the summer of 2022. Every La Niña event
is different, and with the world's oceans and atmosphere
warming, there is more moisture in the air to be precipitated
out during cool frontal passages. These changes
could change the impact of La Niña on Russia and
North America, but a caution flag is still flying because
of low ground water that is already present in Russia
and offers at least some support for less-than-usual rain70
Potential
problems in North America
North America weather also will be a bit tenuous for
2022 with drought expected to remain from the southwestern
states into the central and southern Plains by
spring. Dryness also will prevail in central parts of
Canada's Prairies. The environment could bring back
dryness to the northern Plains and allow it to develop in
a part of the western Corn Belt next spring. However,
for now, all of this is just speculation based on patterns
of the past. Nevertheless, a watchful eye is warranted
to look for the sleeping dog to possibly awaken in the
spring and/or summer of 2022.
In the meantime, La Niña continues to evolve and
is taking more control of the world's weather. South
America's weather in November should be strongly
controlled by La Niña. That should lead to below-average
rainfall in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern
Paraguay and southern Brazil. Good crop weather is
expected in center west and center south Brazil, and
much of western Argentina should see timely precipitation,
even though it may be lighter than usual at times.
One last area of interest in the Southern Hemisphere
this year is Australia. There is still some potential for the
nation to experience a wet November and December. A
wet finish to the year could be a threat to its wheat, barley
and canola crops as they finish development, mature
and are harvested. Too much rain too often could
translate into a decline in crop quality.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present,
past and future weather conditions included in this report
constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this
report and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
November 2021 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: NASA
http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - November 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2021

World Grain - November 2021 - Intro
World Grain - November 2021 - 1
World Grain - November 2021 - 2
World Grain - November 2021 - 3
World Grain - November 2021 - 4
World Grain - November 2021 - 5
World Grain - November 2021 - 6
World Grain - November 2021 - 7
World Grain - November 2021 - 8
World Grain - November 2021 - 9
World Grain - November 2021 - 10
World Grain - November 2021 - 11
World Grain - November 2021 - 12
World Grain - November 2021 - 13
World Grain - November 2021 - 14
World Grain - November 2021 - 15
World Grain - November 2021 - 16
World Grain - November 2021 - 17
World Grain - November 2021 - 18
World Grain - November 2021 - 19
World Grain - November 2021 - 20
World Grain - November 2021 - 21
World Grain - November 2021 - 22
World Grain - November 2021 - 23
World Grain - November 2021 - 24
World Grain - November 2021 - 25
World Grain - November 2021 - 26
World Grain - November 2021 - 27
World Grain - November 2021 - 28
World Grain - November 2021 - 29
World Grain - November 2021 - 30
World Grain - November 2021 - 31
World Grain - November 2021 - 32
World Grain - November 2021 - 33
World Grain - November 2021 - 34
World Grain - November 2021 - 35
World Grain - November 2021 - 36
World Grain - November 2021 - 37
World Grain - November 2021 - 38
World Grain - November 2021 - 39
World Grain - November 2021 - 40
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World Grain - November 2021 - 84
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/-world-grain-november-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2021
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_12_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
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