TRADE WAR'S FEATURE IMPACT ON GRAIN SHIPPING Uncertainty makes forward planning 'next to impossible' I gnoring the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the grains industry this year is all but impossible. Particularly in the United States, where the loss of Chinese markets is hitting farmers where it hurts most - in the pocket. The knock-on effects of tariffs and WKH FKDQJHV LQ WUDGH ÀRZV WKDW KDYH IROORZHG KDYH of course, been felt along supply chains by those that ship, handle and manage grain. One analyst told World GrainWKHGLVUXSWLYHLPSDFWRQLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVSRUW networks and planning was comparable to the introGXFWLRQ RI JHQHWLFDOO\ PRGL¿HG FURSV H[FHSW VXFK LV the uncertainty around tariffs that forward planning "is QH[WWRLPSRVVLEOHHYHQLQWKHVKRUWWHUP´ As World Grain went to press in December, the two sides had agreed to a 90-day suspension of the QH[W HVFDODWLRQ RI 86 WDULIIV RQ &KLQHVH SURGXFWV which were scheduled for implementation by Jan. 1. &KLQD PHDQZKLOH PDGH QRQVSHFL¿F SURPLVHV WR buy substantial amounts of U.S. energy, industrial and American agricultural products. In essence, the trade war truce stayed the escalation of tariffs already in place and slowed the implementation of new tariff 30 and non-tariff obstacles to trade. But it singularly failed WRUHPRYHWKHXQFHUWDLQW\RIZKDWKDSSHQVQH[W As things stand, should no new trade agreement be signed, and that seems the most likely outcome at this VWDJHWKHQWKHWUXFHSURYLGHVDSRWHQWLDOWUDGLQJZLQdow for the grains industry before a further escalation of the trade dispute during 2019. Adding to the shortWHUPPXUNLQHVVVRPHDQDO\VWVEHOLHYHWKHWUXFHPLJKW be broken before 90 days are up should one or both VLGHVFRQFOXGHDGHDOZLOOQRWEHDJUHHG+RZHYHUMXVW DVHDVLO\WKHGD\WUXFHFRXOGEHH[WHQGHG ³1RERG\QRWHYHQWKHRSSRVLQJVLGHVLQWKLVHYROYLQJ HFRQRPLF FRQÀLFW VHHPV WR NQRZ ZKDW LV JRLQJ WR KDSSHQ QH[W´ VDLG 3DWULN %HUJOXQG FKLHI H[HFXWLYHRI¿FHURI;HQHWD³$WWKHEHJLQQLQJRI'HFHPEHU ZH KDG 3UHVLGHQWV7UXPS DQG ;L KDLOLQJ DQ DSSDUHQW FHDVH¿UHDWWKH*PHHWLQJLQ$UJHQWLQDRQO\IRUWKH Huawei case to quickly illustrate that hostilities are far IURPRYHU ³7KH GD\ EUHDWKLQJ VSDFH WKH 86 KDV JLYHQ &KLQD ZLWK UHJDUGV WR WKH QH[W URXQG RI WDULII KLNHV may or may not last that long, and in the meantime January 2019 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com ©Paolo Pizzimenti - stock.adobe.com by Michael Kinghttp://www.World-Grain.com