World Grain - July 2019 - 46

FEATURE

EARLY
FREEZE
MAY AWAIT WATERLOGGED CROPS
An early frost would be final nail in coffin for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production

H

orrendously wet weather in 2019 already has cut
deeply into U.S. corn and soybean production
either by lost acreage or by very late planting.
7KHSRWHQWLDOSURGXFWLRQVKRUWIDOOLVDOUHDG\DVLJQL¿
cant number, but a new study by World Weather, Inc.
SRLQWV WRZDUG D SRVVLEO\ KLJKHUWKDQXVXDO SRWHQWLDO
IRUHDUO\VHDVRQIURVWDQGIUHH]HVWKLVDXWXPQ6XFKDQ
HYHQWFRXOGHDVLO\SXWWKH¿QDOQDLOLQWRWKH86SUR
GXFWLRQFRI¿Q
7KLV\HDU¶VXQXVXDOO\ZHWZHDWKHUKDVVHWPDQ\UDLQ
IDOODQGÀRRGUHFRUGVDFURVVWKHHDVWHUQ*UHDW3ODLQV
Midwest, Delta and the southeastern states. It is not
unusual to have one or two of these regions wetter
than normal during multiple seasons, but it is rare to
KDYH WKUHH RI WKHVH DUHDV H[SHULHQFLQJ VLPLODU FRQGL
tions. This year has been excessively wet in all four
regions for a full year, and that has only happened in a
handful of years since the late 1800s. That year, by the
way, ended in April. The unusually wet weather in the
southeastern states came to a roaring halt in May when
it quit raining for several weeks and the region became
H[FHVVLYHO\GU\3RUWLRQVRIWKH*UHDW3ODLQV0LGZHVW
and Delta continued their wetter bias right through the
majority of June.
There have been seven years in which all four crop
areas noted above were wetter than usual for a full year.
When World Weather, Inc. looked at each of those years
to see what happened during the following summer

46

WKHUHZDVQRFOHDUVLJQDO+DOIRIWKHVXPPHUVWKDWIRO
lowed were still wetter biased and the other half turned
drier. Many traders, food companies and farmers have
been concerned that - like in 1983 - the nation might
turn suddenly hot and dry around the middle part of
summer, leading to more production issues. However,
WKDWGRHVQRWVHHPWR¿WZLWKDOOWKHRWKHUZHDWKHULQ
ÀXHQFHVWKDWDUHSUHVHQWWKLVVXPPHU(O1LxRIDYRUV
a little more moisture and less heat as does the solar
cycle, although the solar minimum years tend to have
DGULHUELDVLQ$XJXVW7KRVH$XJXVWGULHUVRODUPLQL
mum years tend to be cooler biased as well, and if this
\HDULVLQÀXHQFHGE\WKHVHIHDWXUHVLWPLJKWEHKDUGWR
come up with a hot, dry, scenario for July and August.
Most of the data World Weather, Inc. has perused
in recent weeks suggests a gradual drying trend will
evolve over the next few weeks and months. July will
start out with frequent precipitation, but its intensity
will slacken as time moves along. By late July and
early August, the precipitation will be much lighter
and less frequent and even though temperatures might
QRWEHDVZDUPDVXVXDOWKH0LGZHVW3ODLQVDQG'HOWD
ZLOOVORZO\GU\GRZQ7KHSULPDU\UHDVRQIRUH[FHS
tion will come from tropical activity that may impact
the southern U.S. from time to time late this summer
and early autumn.
7KHVXPPHUZHDWKHUHQYLURQPHQWVKRXOGVORZO\EH
FRPH PRUH IDYRUDEOH IRU FURS GHYHORSPHQW DQG SUR
July 2019 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

©RuZi - stock.adobe.com

by Drew Lerner
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - July 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2019
