World Grain - September 2019 - 16

GRAINMARKET REVIEW

COARSE

GRAINS

Corn prices in the U.S. since 2010
(dollars per bushel)
8
7
6

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

16

2015

3

2014

A sharp upward revision in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast in the Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates for the U.S. 2019-20 maize crop sent prices lower in mid-August.
In a weekly newsletter published Aug. 20, the European
Confederation of Maize Production (CEPM) described the
upward revision of the U.S. crop by 660,000 tonnes "surprising for all market observers."
The U.K.'s Agricultural and Horticultural Development
Board said the new USDA production forecast for the United
States at 353.1 million tonnes was up by 0.7 million on July's
release and 2.6% above the top end of industry estimates. The
planted area, at 36.4 million hectares, was 1.9% above the
86'$¶V-XO\¿JXUHDQGDERYHWKHKLJKHVWLQGXVWU\HVWLmates. The yield estimate, at 11.4 tonnes a hectare, was 2.8%
above industry estimates.
CEPM noted that other bearish elements include pressure
from the South American harvest and the outlook for Ukraine.
³:LWKWKHHQGRIWKHKDUYHVWVWKH¿UVWDFUHDJHIRUHFDVWVIRU
the new crop year are emerging in South America," CEPM
said. "In Brazil, the maize acreage will depend on soybean
sowing, but farmers should be encouraged to sow maize because of good conditions this year."
The European trade group also said Maizar, the organization
of Argentinean producers, "expects an acreage increase of 5%
to 10% for the same reasons, but the political context should
still be monitored with the presidential election in October."
It explains that President Mauricio Macri, who has undertaken to end export taxes on agricultural products, unlike his
opponent, is struggling in the polls.
"Moreover, the prospect of Mr. Macri's defeat contributes
to the fall of pesos rates," CEPM said.
At the same time, the level of European maize imports has
been high since July 1, particularly in Benelux (Belgium, the
Netherlands and Luxembourg) and Spain.
"Operators in these countries are protecting themselves in
the face of uncertainties about the French harvest, the weakness of the Ukrainian stocks from the old harvest, and the good
competitiveness of Brazilian maize," CEPM said. "However,
the maize import projection for the 2019-20 crop year is down
from the previous crop year due to the good availability of
straw cereals."

2013

4
2012

by Chris Lyddon

2011

5

2010

WASDE surprise sends maize lower

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

The U.S. Grains Council, in its Market Perspectives dated
Aug. 15, also highlighted the fall in maize futures.
"Funds were holding a slight long position heading into the
(USDA) report and have since largely exited that and are believed to be neutral or slightly short corn," the Council said.
"Looking forward, summer crop tours will bring additional
yield forecasts to the market's attention and early reports sugJHVW ¿QDO \LHOGV PD\ EH ORZHU WKDQ WKH 86'$¶V ODWHVW HVWLmate."
As well as the surprise change for maize, the USGC also reported that the United States had increased its forecast for the
country's 2019-20 sorghum crop by 15% to 7.707 million tonnes.
"The agency increased its expectations for feed and residual
use but kept its export forecast unchanged, leaving a 23% increase in ending stocks," the USGC noted.
There were few changes for barley, with yield revised up by
1%, while the oat yield was revised down by 2%.
"Internationally, USDA increased the world corn 2019-20
production estimate to 1.108 billion tonnes on larger crops in
the U.S., Ukraine and the E.U.," the USGC said. "The E.U.
crop adjustments were made largely on much better-than-expected crops in Eastern Europe that outweighed the heatwavereduced crops in France, Germany and Poland.
"The agency also increased world ending stocks to 307.7
PLOOLRQWRQQHVWKRXJKWKDW¿JXUHLVVWLOOORZHUWKDQ
19."
From a technical standpoint, December corn is stabilizing
DIWHULWVVWHHSSRVW:$6'(VHOOR൵DQGLVQHDUPDMRUWHFKQLFDO
support, the USGC said.
It suggested that "the market could bounce back from its
UHFHQW ORZV HVSHFLDOO\ LI FURS WRXUV FRQWLQXH ¿QGLQJ VSRWW\
yields."
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to
worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

September 2019 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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World Grain - September 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - September 2019

World Grain - September 2019
Contents
FROM THE EDITOR - Embracing technology paramount for sustainability
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Organic & Non-GMO Forum covers opportunities in the market
News Review - Four sentenced to federal prison for organic fraud
Bunge to relocate global headquarters
Ceres completes acquisition of Delmar Commodities
Kraft, Mondelez Global penalized in wheat manipulation case
ASF takes toll on Wilmar earnings
VTB purchases stake in Russian grain trader
Nibulon begins construction on new grain facility
Viterra to acquire Ilta Grain’s Belle Plain facility
CBH completes first storage expansion project
GRAIN MARKET REVIEW - COARSE GRAINS
COUNTRY FOCUS - ETHIOPIA
FEATURE: PASTA GAINING POPULARITY IN ETHIOPIA
FEATURE: IRAQ’S WHEAT MILLING CONUNDRUM
Recent developments
FEATURE: LMOI BRINGS FLOUR MILLING BACK TO MADAGASCAR
FEATURE: MILLERS FOCUSING ON FLOUR SAFETY
MILLING OPERATIONS - ACCESSING milling potential
FEATURE: LATEST MILLING TECHNOLOGY
FEATURE: U.S. MILLERS EXPANDING INTO ORGANIC FLOUR
FEATURE: GROWTH ON IRAN FEED INDUSTRY’S HORIZON
FEATURE: Q&A WITH GAFTA’S SWITHUN STILL
FEATURE: WILD WEATHER FAILS TO DRIVE PRICES HIGHER
TECHNICAL PROFILE: MILL OF THE FUTURE
SUPPLIER NEWS
PRODUCT SHOWCASE
WORLD GRAIN ARCHIVE
ADVERTISER INDEX
World Grain - September 2019 - World Grain - September 2019
World Grain - September 2019 - World Grain - September 2019
World Grain - September 2019 - 2
World Grain - September 2019 - 3
World Grain - September 2019 - 4
World Grain - September 2019 - Contents
World Grain - September 2019 - FROM THE EDITOR - Embracing technology paramount for sustainability
World Grain - September 2019 - 7
World Grain - September 2019 - Organic & Non-GMO Forum covers opportunities in the market
World Grain - September 2019 - 9
World Grain - September 2019 - Bunge to relocate global headquarters
World Grain - September 2019 - Ceres completes acquisition of Delmar Commodities
World Grain - September 2019 - Kraft, Mondelez Global penalized in wheat manipulation case
World Grain - September 2019 - ASF takes toll on Wilmar earnings
World Grain - September 2019 - Viterra to acquire Ilta Grain’s Belle Plain facility
World Grain - September 2019 - CBH completes first storage expansion project
World Grain - September 2019 - GRAIN MARKET REVIEW - COARSE GRAINS
World Grain - September 2019 - COUNTRY FOCUS - ETHIOPIA
World Grain - September 2019 - 18
World Grain - September 2019 - 19
World Grain - September 2019 - 20
World Grain - September 2019 - 21
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: PASTA GAINING POPULARITY IN ETHIOPIA
World Grain - September 2019 - 23
World Grain - September 2019 - 24
World Grain - September 2019 - 25
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: IRAQ’S WHEAT MILLING CONUNDRUM
World Grain - September 2019 - 27
World Grain - September 2019 - 28
World Grain - September 2019 - 29
World Grain - September 2019 - 30
World Grain - September 2019 - Recent developments
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: LMOI BRINGS FLOUR MILLING BACK TO MADAGASCAR
World Grain - September 2019 - 33
World Grain - September 2019 - 34
World Grain - September 2019 - 35
World Grain - September 2019 - 36
World Grain - September 2019 - 37
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: MILLERS FOCUSING ON FLOUR SAFETY
World Grain - September 2019 - 39
World Grain - September 2019 - 40
World Grain - September 2019 - 41
World Grain - September 2019 - 42
World Grain - September 2019 - 43
World Grain - September 2019 - 44
World Grain - September 2019 - 45
World Grain - September 2019 - 46
World Grain - September 2019 - 47
World Grain - September 2019 - 48
World Grain - September 2019 - 49
World Grain - September 2019 - MILLING OPERATIONS - ACCESSING milling potential
World Grain - September 2019 - 51
World Grain - September 2019 - 52
World Grain - September 2019 - 53
World Grain - September 2019 - 54
World Grain - September 2019 - 55
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: LATEST MILLING TECHNOLOGY
World Grain - September 2019 - 57
World Grain - September 2019 - 58
World Grain - September 2019 - 59
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: U.S. MILLERS EXPANDING INTO ORGANIC FLOUR
World Grain - September 2019 - 61
World Grain - September 2019 - 62
World Grain - September 2019 - 63
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: GROWTH ON IRAN FEED INDUSTRY’S HORIZON
World Grain - September 2019 - 65
World Grain - September 2019 - 66
World Grain - September 2019 - 67
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: Q&A WITH GAFTA’S SWITHUN STILL
World Grain - September 2019 - 69
World Grain - September 2019 - 70
World Grain - September 2019 - 71
World Grain - September 2019 - FEATURE: WILD WEATHER FAILS TO DRIVE PRICES HIGHER
World Grain - September 2019 - 73
World Grain - September 2019 - 74
World Grain - September 2019 - 75
World Grain - September 2019 - TECHNICAL PROFILE: MILL OF THE FUTURE
World Grain - September 2019 - 77
World Grain - September 2019 - 78
World Grain - September 2019 - 79
World Grain - September 2019 - SUPPLIER NEWS
World Grain - September 2019 - 81
World Grain - September 2019 - 82
World Grain - September 2019 - 83
World Grain - September 2019 - 84
World Grain - September 2019 - 85
World Grain - September 2019 - 86
World Grain - September 2019 - 87
World Grain - September 2019 - PRODUCT SHOWCASE
World Grain - September 2019 - WORLD GRAIN ARCHIVE
World Grain - September 2019 - ADVERTISER INDEX
World Grain - September 2019 - 91
World Grain - September 2019 - 92
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com