World Grain - September 2019 - 75

still present, but that has not done much to stimulate
market interests.
There also have been extremely wet conditions in recent weeks. Southern China was rainy in the spring and
early summer, but actually dried out a little too much in
late August. Another wet region has been in the northern Philippines where rainfall in northwestern Luzon
Island, Philippines, ranged from 44 to 56.38 inches
Aug. 1-26, with other west coast locations reporting 20
to 37 inches in only 26 days. Southwestern Myanmar
(where 56% of the nation's rice is produced) reported
20 to 60 inches of rain in the same 26-day period, and
the forecast was calling for another 12 to 20 inches of
UDLQ LQ WKH IROORZLQJ ZHHN WR HQG LQ WKH ¿UVW GD\V RI
September. These are incredible extremes in weather
and yet look where the futures markets stand.
The next most incredible event may soon be here.
Some U.S. forecasters are beginning to buy into
World Weather, Inc.'s July 30 forecast of normal to
earlier-than-normal frost and freezes in the northern Plains and northern Midwest during September.
:LOO WKDW EH WKH ¿QDO VWUDZ WKDW ZLOO GULYH IXWXUHV
prices higher again? Maybe not, as much will de-

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pend on how hard the frost and freezes are and where
they occur relative to the most immature crops. At
the bare minimum, it will be the single most talked
about event in September and it may give weather
one more opportunity to move markets higher.
We can blame the weather for just about everything that happens in the world these days, but you
cannot blame it for the market doldrums. There have
been many opportunities for the impact of weather to
shorten world production, but so far those have only
been "opportunities" and not realities. It makes you
wonder if changing weather really does have that
much impact on future production.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World
Weather, Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.
rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to
present, past and future weather conditions included in this report
constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report
and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

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World Grain - September 2019

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