World Grain - October 2019 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR

ASF impact goes beyond
pork industry
EDITORIAL STAFF

s it continues to spread across the
globe, African swine fever's farreaching impact on the pork, feed
and grain markets is still being assessed
by experts.
"ASF is something that's very hard
for the market to understand," said Stefan Vogel, head of commodities for Rabobank U.K. "We have never received
so many calls and questions from clients
on one single topic as we have this one."
What is known at this point is that in
China, which is the world's largest pork
producer and consumer, and where the
outbreak began, Rabobank estimates
the pig herd may shrink by 50% by the
end of 2019. Analysts say it may take
PRUH WKDQ ¿YH \HDUV IRU &KLQD WR UHcover to levels prior to the outbreak as
challenges, including a lack of solutions
to prevent or treat the disease and a lack
of capital, will restrict restocking.
But the outbreak stretches far beyond
the borders of China, with parts of Asia,
Africa and Eastern Europe among the
hardest hit. The virus has been found in
at least 36 countries on three continents
since June 2018, according to the International Organization for Animal Health,
which noted that it had been controlled or
eradicated in half of those countries, most
of them in Africa. As of early September,
18 countries had reported cases of ASF.
What these countries have discovered
is that the virus - which is usually fatal to pigs but does not infect humans
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vaccine, prevention remains the best
defense, and many countries around the
world are working to bolster their defenses against the virus.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
has even added more dogs to its "Beagle
%ULJDGH´ZKLFKVQL൵VRXWSRUNKLGGHQ
in travelers' luggage at international airports and border crossings. As of early
6

September, there had been no reports
of the virus reaching the U.S., which
has the third largest hog population behind China and Europe. If ASF were to
spread to the U.S., it would mean the
world's top three pork producing markets, which account for 86% of the planet's pork output, would be impacted.
Besides the obvious impact on the
pork sector, the implications for the
global grain and feed markets also could
EH VLJQL¿FDQW 'HQYHU &RORUDGREDVHG
CoBank conservatively estimates that if
China's hog herd declines by one-third,
soybean meal consumption will drop
by roughly 9 million tonnes and corn
consumption will decline by 28 million tonnes. A silver lining is that Chinese consumers already are switching to
SRXOWU\¿VKDQGEHHIIURPSRUNVRIHHG
demand in those sectors could increase
WRVRIWHQWKHEORZ%XWFKLFNHQDQG¿VK
FRQYHUWIHHGPRUHH൶FLHQWO\WKDQKRJV
and cattle, so there is risk that global
feed demand declines if the shift in consumption is a long-term trend.
While scientists work to develop a
vaccine, the global pork industry must
LQFUHDVH HGXFDWLRQ H൵RUWV VR WKDW SLJ
farmers recognize ASF symptoms and
know how to prevent the virus from
spreading. Countries also should follow
the lead of China, Australia and Japan,
which have proposed
KHIW\ ¿QHV DQG HYHQ
prison sentences for
travelers transporting
diseased pork. Perhaps
that sounds extreme,
but it really isn't given
what's at stake. Eradicating this disease
ZLOOUHTXLUHDJOREDOWHDPH൵RUWLQYROYing the public and private sectors.
Arvin Donley
Editor

Editor
Arvin Donley
Managing Editor
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European Correspondent
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China Consultant
Fengcheng Wang
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WORLD GRAIN (ISSN 0745-8991) Volume 37, issue 10,

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World Grain - October 2019

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