World Grain - February 2020 - 16

GRAINMARKET REVIEW

RICE

2020 starts with signs of bullish trend
by Chris Lyddon

400
300
200
100
Dec 2019

Nov 2019

Oct 2019

Sep 2019

Aug 2019

Jul 2019

(U.S. dollars per tonne)

500

Jun 2019

The new decade has started with a more bullish tone in the rice
market, with prices higher in the United States and Thailand. A
WUDGHGHDOEHWZHHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG&KLQDR൵HUVHQFRXUDJHment for U.S. rice exporters.
The U.S. Rice Producers Association said in its Jan. 16 Rice
Advocate publication that "Asian benchmark pricing has continued to escalate over the past week with all of the notable origins
posting positive pricing."
"Fundamental supply and demand factors are at play in that
sphere," U.S. Rice said, pointing to the bullish trend that has
emerged. "The Gulf states are all but out of rice and a virtual
bidding war has broken out amongst buyers in order to secure the
remaining lots and cover medium-term commitments. The Delta
region has also experienced a boost in pricing and regardless of
quality, can be expected to note larger sales volumes in the near
future."
The U.S. Rice Producers Association also reported on the Jan.
15 signing of a trade deal with China, citing USDA estimates that
it could mean rice exports reaching $300 million a year.
A U.S. government fact sheet on the phase one economic and
trade agreement explains that under a phytosanitary protocol
the deal will mean that China is obliged to allow imports from
U.S. facilities within 20 days of receiving the latest list showing
their approval by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
(APHIS).
The fact sheet also highlights China's agreement to comply
ZLWKLWVREOLJDWLRQVRQWDUL൵UDWHTXRWDV754IRUULFHDQGDOORFDWHWKHIXOO754E\-DQXDU\RIHDFK\HDU
"When joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), China
DJUHHG WR HVWDEOLVK D WRQQH WDUL൵ UDWH TXRWD IRU ULFH
equally divided into long-grain and other rice," it said. "With the
completion of both the phytosanitary protocol and this agreement, the U.S. rice industry will now have greater opportunities
to export milled rice to China."
In its Rice Outlook for January, published Jan. 14, the USDA's
Economic Research Service said market prices for most grades
of Thailand's non-aromatic rice have risen 5% to 6% over the
past month, "mostly due to concerns over a much-diminished
dry-season crop that will begin harvest in March and a continued
strong baht."
"Thailand's 100% Grade B long-grain milled rice for export
remains quoted at $428 per tonne for the week ending Jan. 6,
up from $407 for the week ending Dec. 9 and the highest since
mid-August," the ERS said. "In contrast, prices for Thailand's

Rice monthly prices

Rice (Thailand), 5% broken, white rice (WR), milled, indicative
price based on weekly surveys of export transactions, government
standard, f.o.b. Bangkok
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; World Bank

premium aromatic rice - quoted at $1,113 per tonne - are unchanged from a month earlier.
"Vietnam's 5% broken kernels long-grain milled rice is currently quoted at $347 per tonne, down $3 from mid-December
but up $2 from the beginning of December. Vietnam's prices are
currently more than $70 below prices for comparable grades of
Thailand's rice, making Vietnam a price-competitive supplier."
The ERS described prices quoted from exporters in South
America, where the harvest is expected to begin by April in the
southern area that is the source of the bulk of exports, as virtually
unchanged.
"U.S. trading prices for long-grain rice increased over the past
month, with prices for U.S. long-grain milled rice, Number 2
Grade, 4% broken kernels (free on board a vessel at a Gulf port)
currently quoted at $570 per tonne, up $10 from early December," the USDA agency said. "U.S. long-grain milled prices are
currently being supported by recent large sales to Haiti and expectations of much tighter supplies later this market year."
The FAO said on Jan. 9 that rice prices changed little in December, as seasonal declines in fragrant quotations outweighed
gains in the Indica segment, where supply constraints provided
some support to prices. It had reported a 1.5% fall in global rice
prices from October to November.
,QWHUQDWLRQDOULFHSULFHVLQWKH¿UVWPRQWKVRIZHUH
0.6% below year-earlier levels, as declines in Indica quotations
ZHUHSDUWO\R൵VHWE\JDLQVLQ-DSRQLFDDQGIUDJUDQWSULFHVWKH
FAO said.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to
worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

February 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - February 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - February 2020