World Grain - August 2022 - 14

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
Rice monthly price
(US dollars per tonne)
RICE
Ukraine-Russia conflict helps
drive price increase
by Chris Lyddon
Global rice prices are moving higher with the search for alternatives
to wheat and other crops lost to the world market
because of the conflict stemming from Russia's invasion of
Ukraine.
In its Grain: World Markets and Trade report of July 12, the
US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service
reported that " in the past month, US quotes rose $10 to $705
per tonne amid tight supplies. "
" Uruguayan prices remain steady at $545 per tonne, " the
report added. " Thai quotes fell $28, to $428 per tonne, due
to large stocks, a weakening Thai baht, and stiff competition
from other Asian suppliers. Vietnamese prices fell by $13, to
$410 per tonne, as market conditions remain little changed
from last month. Shrinking the price spread with Thailand and
Vietnam, Pakistani quotes rose $40, to $420 per tonne, amid
steady demand from China. Indian quotes rose minimally by
$5, to $350 per tonne, and remain the lowest globally with
large supplies. "
In its July 8 Rice Price Update, the United Nations Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said prices had risen in
June by 1.4% month-on-month.
" June marked the sixth consecutive month of international
rice price increases, " the FAO said, explaining that levels
reached 2.3% above the level of June 2021. " Quotations
moved up in all the market segments last month, except in the
glutinous sector, where a retreat of Chinese buyers from the
market tended to weigh on sentiment.
" Increases were most pronounced for aromatic rice, reflecting
support provided to basmati quotations by strong demand
from Near Eastern buyers and thinning availabilities. On the
other hand, mixed trends across origins kept Indica increases
at 1.1%, while Japonica values reached their highest level
since May 2014, following a 1.6% monthly rise driven by
sustained production concerns in California. "
June export quotations followed contrasting trends in Asian
Indica markets, the FAO said.
" In Pakistan, prices leaped to 12-month highs, buoyed by
strong export progress this year coupled with heightened inflationary
pressure, including from increases in fuel and electricity
costs, " the FAO said. " Quotations also edged up mildly
in India amid consistently robust demand, with an import duty
14
100
200
300
400
500
Rice (Thailand), 5% broken, white rice (WR), milled,
indicative price based on weekly surveys of export
transactions, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok
cut in Bangladesh also providing a late-month boost to values
in the country. "
By contrast, prices fell in Thailand, depressed by a pause in
fresh Iraqi purchases occurring amid otherwise low demand
and a depreciating Baht, the FAO said.
" A slow pace of trade also lowered offers in Vietnam, where
the early summer-autumn harvest began to trickle into the
market, " the FAO said.
In its July 15 Rice Advocate newsletter, the US Rice Producers
Association, noting that US harvesting was set to begin,
commented that " globally, all eyes are still on Asia where
rice demand is believed to be stronger due to the Russian and
Ukraine wheat fallout. "
" As the Middle East and North African markets hunt for
alternative calories, rice is expected to become one of the key
substitutes in this normally heavy wheat consuming region, "
US Rice said.
Another factor that can place strain on the world rice market
pertains to the fertilizer issue, the association said.
" Growers in Asia were clearly forced to ration fertilizer on
higher prices, but the effects of those agronomical decisions
have yet to be seen, " US Rice said. " China is already reporting
increased pest and disease problems with its rice crop, and
Thailand anticipates lower yields due to the inflated fertilizer
and chemical costs. Since the Russia invasion, rice prices have
remained rather stable when compared to wheat and corn.
However, the last time the grain trade was this disrupted was
in 2008, when rice prices ran past $1,000 per tonne, nearly
twice the current value. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
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August 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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Source: World Bank; US Department of Agriculture
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World Grain - August 2022

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