World Grain - August 2022 - 32

REGIONAL REVIEW: AUSTRALIA ON FRONT LINES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Australian cropping zone, parts of western NSW and
central Queensland. "
The results of ABARES simulations project increases
in average Australian prices for major grain crops
(wheat, barley and sorghum) ranging from 3% to 24%,
the report said.
" This represents climate change increasing the frequency
and severity of drought induced grain shortages
and related price spikes, similar to those observed in
Australia during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 droughts, "
the authors said. " These higher grain prices help to limit
the impacts of climate change on cropping farms, but
pass additional costs onto grain consumers, including
sectors not modeled here such as intensive livestock
businesses (e.g., cattle feedlots, poultry and pig production)
and food manufacturing. "
Farmers adapting
However, gains in productivity are helping to offset climate
effects.
" There is already evidence of strong farm adaptation
responses to the recent climate shifts with improvements
in technology and management practices
helping to increase farm productivity, " the ABARES
experts said. " Wheat yield drought risk shows a strong
improvement since 2007-08, as technology and management
practice changes have helped farmers improve
crop yields under dry conditions.
" Since 2007-08, wheat yields under dry conditions
32
have increased by 14%, more than double the gains in
yield under normal conditions over the same period.
This trend is also partly due to changes in the location
of cropping activity, including a shift towards increased
cropping in higher rainfall areas relative to more marginal
or drought-exposed parts of Australia. "
They also point out that the 2020 winter crop harvest
in Western Australia, which was way above
expectations in the conditions experienced, demonstrated
the increased ability of producers to handle
dry conditions.
" Despite these improvements, Australian farm profits
have become more sensitive to drought impacts over
time, " they said. " That is, while average farm productivity
and profits have increased, the difference between
profits in normal and drought years has widened. "
ABARES looks at " farm business profit drought
risk, " defined as the percentage reduction in farm profits
in a drought year relative to a normal year.
" Farm profit drought risk has increased consistently
since 1989, due largely to structural changes in the agricultural
sector, including a shift towards increased
cropping activity (and away from livestock farming),
which is subject to relatively higher drought risk, " the
report explained. " The proportion of Australian farmland
devoted to cropping has increased dramatically
over the last 30 years. "
This trend has slowed, with signs of a decline in
cropping activity in recent years, driven predominantly
August 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
©Peter - stock.adobe.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - August 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - August 2022
