World Grain - August 2022 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR
Russia casts doubt
on grain export deal
A
fter five months of death, destruction
and darkness, a ray of
hope emerged on July 22 from
the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has engulfed
the Black Sea region and sent destructive
shockwaves around the world.
When Russia and Ukraine signed a deal
that would eliminate the blockade of
Ukraine's three major Black Sea ports
and allow millions of tonnes of grain to
flow freely to global destinations, it was
a positive development for a world desperately
craving good news.
Less than 24 hours later, that ray of
hope was all but extinguished when
Russia fired four missiles toward the
Port of Odesa. Although no grain assets
were targeted or hit in the attack,
the message sent by Russian President
Vladimir Putin was clear: Nothing will
stop Russia from doing what it wants,
when it wants.
The agreement, which would allow
20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain
to be exported, has the potential to significantly
lower grain prices and reduce
food shortages and inflation that has
contributed to the record number of
people around the world living in food
insecurity. None of that apparently matters
to Putin, the Russian dictator whose
unprovoked invasion of neighboring
Ukraine on Feb. 24 has further destabilized
a world that is still grappling
with the worst pandemic in more than
100 years.
Poorer nations were seeing a sharp
increase in food insecurity BEFORE
the first shot was fired in the RussiaUkraine
war on Feb. 24. The war proved
to be the proverbial straw that broke the
camel's back, sending grain prices into
the stratosphere and causing a frenetic
shift in grain trade flows, which is what
happens when a top five grain producer
and exporter is abruptly cut off from the
global market.
6
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor
Managing Editor
Associate Editor
Digital Media Senior Editor
European Correspondent
United Nations Secretary General
António Guterres and Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan deserve credit
for brokering the Russia-Ukraine deal
that, if followed, will positively impact
the lives of millions in countries that depend
on Ukraine for their daily bread.
For places like Sudan, where food prices
have risen 187% in the last six months,
and Syria, which has seen food prices
increase by 86%, anything that will shift
grain prices lower and add more product
to the supply chain is a godsend.
With the war still raging, and after the
July 23 missile attack, it's naïve to think
this deal is on anything but very shaky
ground. Putin's volatile nature is reason
enough to be skeptical that the agreement
can endure. There are also questions
about the logistics of moving grain
through waters dotted with sea mines as
well as the condition of the Ukrainian
grain, much of which has sat in storage
longer than intended.
Perhaps more important than the actual
volume of grain entering the global
market is the symbolic aspect of the
agreement. Global, national and even
local politics have deteriorated so badly
in recent years that an agreement of
any sort between opposing factions -
particularly those engaged in a bloody
military battle - is a surprising development.
The hope, at least before the
missile attack, was the
agreement could lead
these warring countries
to find middle
ground on other issues.
Sadly, Russia's decision
to attack the Port
of Odesa before the ink had even dried
on the agreement quickly extinguished
such optimism.
Arvin Donley
Editor
China Consultant
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World Grain - August 2022

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