World Grain - December 2024 - 19

" However, the situation changed in April of this year, with
Chinese demand for corn dropping significantly, " the FAS
said. " Post contacts attribute the decline to Brazil's less competitive
prices compared to other markets like Argentina and
the United States, reduced availability of corn due to lower
production this year, and China's decision to decrease overall
corn imports. "
China is also a major destination for Brazil's soybeans, accounting
for three-quarters of its shipments. Record exports
of 102 million tonnes are expected in 2024-25, up from 99
million tonnes last season.
" The forecast is based on increased expectations of ample
available supplies and an extremely favorable exchange
rate, " the FAS said.
Soybean production is estimated at a record 161 million
tonnes in 2024-25, a 6% increase from last season. Year-onyear
yield gains are expected due to adoption and investment
in technology, including genetically engineered seeds and
chemicals and fertilizers.
Despite low prices, Brazilian farmers continue to expand
soybean production, the FAS said, because it is more profitable
than corn and relatively easy to grow.
Corn ethanol growth
Brazil is the world's second-largest ethanol producer and has
the world's oldest ethanol program dating back to the mid1970s.
The ethanol blend rate with conventional gasoline can
vary from 18% to 27.5%.
Sugar cane is the primary feedstock, but corn ethanol production,
which emerged in 2014-15, is still on a steep upward
trajectory, the FAS said. Total ethanol production in 2024 is
estimated at 32.5 billion liters, down from 34.4 billion liters
in 2023. Of the 2024 production, an estimated 25.5 billion
liters are sugar cane-based, and 7 billion liters are corn-based
ethanol.
Corn ethanol production increased 41% in 2023-24 and
jumped another 1 billion liters in 2024-25, the FAS said. As
of July 2024, Brazil had 22 corn ethanol plants with a combined
nameplate capacity of 7.22 billion liters per year, for
total corn demand of 17 million tonnes.
There are nine corn ethanol plants under construction for
an additional 2.75 billion liters of products. If all projects are
completed, Brazilian corn ethanol production could reach
13.8 billion liters in the next eight years, requiring more than
30 million tonnes of corn, the FAS said.
The nation is the third-largest biodiesel producer, with
production estimated at 8.9 billion liters in 2024, an increase
of 18% from the previous year. Its program started in 2005
with mandatory minimum blend rates, currently set at 14%
and set to increase to 15% in March 2025. About 69% of the
biodiesel production in 2023 originated from soybean oil and
16% is made from greasy material, the FAS said.
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World Grain - December 2024

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