World Grain - December 2024 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR
Biofuels preparing
to take flight
A
fter soaring in the early 2000s
only to see more modest growth
in recent years, the biofuels industry
might be on the verge of flying
high again ... about 35,000 feet high to
be exact.
A push by " green " energy proponents
for a more environmentally friendly
airline fuel has led to the development
of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF),
produced by vegetable oils,
ethanol,
plant biomass and waste products. This
includes soy-based biodiesel and cornbased
ethanol. SAF is blended with
conventional fuel at different levels,
with limits between 10% to 50% depending
on the feedstock and how the
fuel is produced. According to the International
Civil Aviation Organization,
more than 360,000 commercial flights
have used SAF at 46 different airports
mainly in the United States and Europe.
Global production of SAF is expected
to reach over 600 million gallons
in 2024, but that is a tiny fraction of
the roughly 100 billion gallons of airline
fuel projected to be used this year
globally, according to a report from the
Global Outlook for Air Transportation.
But proponents of SAF envision exponential
growth in the coming years.
Three years ago, the Biden administration
set production goals of 3 billion
gallons of SAF by 2030 in the United
States and 35 billion by 2050, a figure
that would satisfy 100% of domestic
airline fuel demand.
If these goals are realized, it will be
a game-changer for corn and soybean
producers as well as the biofuels industry.
They received promising news in
April when the US Department of Energy
updated its model to calculate lifecycle
emissions for SAF. Called GREET
(greenhouse gases, regulated emissions
and energy use in technologies), the
model incorporated new data including
6
updated modeling of key feedstocks and
processes used in aviation fuel and indirect
emissions, and integrated key greenhouse
gas emission reduction strategies.
The final draft of GREET is expected
soon. Also pending is guidance on the
Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z tax credit,
which goes into effect Jan. 1, 2025, and
will help farmers and the industries that
serve them find new revenue opportunities
with the expansion of the SAF market.
But as CoBank noted in a recent report,
the tax credit alone won't be enough.
Additional long-term government and
market incentives will be needed to ramp
up SAF output to optimal levels.
Other questions must be addressed:
Will the cost of SAF, which is currently
about three times higher than petroleumbased
fuel, become more affordable? Can
enough additional arable land be developed
to produce the amount of feedstock
needed for SAF? Will cropland expansion
incentivized by SAF undermine
the potential greenhouse gas emissions
reductions from those fuels since studies
indicate that converting land to crops releases
carbon from the soil while reducing
its biomass? And with Donald Trump
returning to power, how supportive will
his administration be of SAF?
It also raises the question often asked
on this editorial page by Morton Sosland,
the late editor-in-chief of World
Grain, amid the initial
biofuels boom: If more
grain is diverted for industrial
purposes, how
will that impact the
global food supply and
the price of food?
SAF is moving down the proverbial
airport runway, but several hurdles must
be crossed before it's cleared for takeoff.
Arvin Donley
Editor
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WORLD GRAIN (ISSN 0745-8991) Volume 42, issue 12,
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World Grain - December 2024

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