World Grain - February 2024 - 42

Global flour trade projected to
IGC revises its forecast higher by 200,000 tonnes for 2023-24
by Arvin Donley
T
he forecast for global flour trade in 2023-24
was revised slightly higher by the International
Grains Council (IGC) in its quarterly update
on Jan. 11. The Council projected shipments to reach
14.7 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), an increase of
200,000 tonnes from its October forecast.
The IGC said the projected increase mainly is tied
to unusually large shipments from Turkey, perennially
the world's biggest flour exporter. Turkish exports have
increased substantially to sub-Saharan Africa.
" Available customs data indicate that Turkey's deliveries
to that region in the first four months of the
2023-24 season (July-June) reached 900,000 tonnes,
the highest in at least 15 years and up nearly three-fold
compared to the five-year average for that period, " the
IGC said. " Shipments to Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti
have been particularly strong, with the deliveries to the
latter termed to be mostly transshipped to Ethiopia. "
The IGC said Turkish exports to sub-Saharan Africa
more than offset lagging shipments to destinations such
as Syria, Yemen and Sri Lanka.
The Council's full-year projection for Turkey's flour
exports would be a record 5.8 million tonnes, up from
4.9 million in 2022-23. The large increase of shipments
from Turkey will more than offset smaller outgo from
traditional flour exporters such as Kazakhstan, Russia
and the European Union. Kazakhstan is expected to
rank No. 2 in exports in 2023-24 at 2.5 million tonnes,
42
about 250,000 tonnes below last year's total, the IGC
said. Russia is seen exporting 700,000 tonnes this year,
more than 400,000 tonnes less than the previous year.
" Amid expectations for a recovery in domestic demand
and signs of export competition in some markets,
including Africa, the EU export projection is trimmed
slightly from the October update, now seen at 500,000
tonnes (compared to 600,000 in October), " the IGC
said. " As of early January, EU 2023-24 cumulative
dispatches were reported at around 260,000 tonnes,
broadly steady year-on-year. "
On the import side, revisions from October include
a 205,000-tonne reduction for projected purchases by
Syria, owing to reduced shipments from neighboring
Turkey.
Intake by the world's two largest flour importers
- Afghanistan and Iraq - was unchanged from the
IGC's October forecast but will see a significant decline
year-on-year, the Council noted. Afghanistan's
imports are forecast to fall by 50,000 tonnes, to 2.35
million, while Iraq will see a steeper drop of more than
300,000 tonnes, to 1.7 million.
Although 1% higher year-on-year, 2023-24 global
flour trade is projected slightly lower than the prior
five-year average, according to the IGC.
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