World Grain - January 2023 - 38

FEATURE: CHINA HOLDS KEY TO SHIPPING COSTS
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (2021-22)
6,000
5,000
4,000
6,000
2,000
1,000
BDI
Jan 2021
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2022
Mar
May
Sharma believes that Ukraine's importance as a
grain exporter makes the ongoing viability of the
BSGI critical.
" There is a lack of alternative modal routes for this
trade, " Sharma told World Grain. " Several European
economies, such as Ukraine and Russia, have broad
gauge railway tracks while others have narrow gauge
tracks. Since Poland falls in the latter category, any exports
from Ukraine to Poland will be through the broad
gauge and thereafter the cargo will have to be reloaded
on the Euro rail gauge, increasing the cost and rendering
the transport mode inefficient and uncompetitive.
" At the same time, war prevents significant exports
via roads, which in any case is a costly logistics solution
for bulk cargo. This leaves stakeholders relying on
seaborne trade. "
This is essential for owners of mid-sized vessels that
cater to the grain market. Any change in the market
conditions affects the supply of crew, insurance, journey
time as well as risk in the market. All in all, freight
cost is impacted.
Mississippi River problems
In the United States, it will take some time for exporters
to recover from lower water levels during 2022,
added Drewry's Sharma.
" The hampering of exports in the third and fourth
quarters of 2022 from the US Gulf due to low water levels
on the Mississippi River is impacting grain exports in
the peak season, " Sharma said. " Waiting time for vessels
has risen due to disrupted inland waterway connectivity.
Such bottlenecks have a significant impact on the supply
of grain as well as shipping supply and demand. "
Rates forecast for 2023
The upshot of all of which is likely to be falling bulk carrier
rates in the first part of 2023 with grain supplies limited
from key sources.
Sharma said the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war was
likely to place a ceiling on supply from the Black Sea,
38
Michael King is a multi-award-winning journalist and podcaster as well as
a shipping and logistics consultant. He also supplies an array of corporate
services. For more information, email mikeking121@gmail.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
January 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Jul
Sep
Nov
while the US harvest forecast did not look promising for
the next year.
" We expect an 8% decline in grain exports from the US
in 2023, " she added. " US grain exports were 20% down
in the first half of 2022 as compared to the first half of
2021. USDA estimates a significant drop of about 11% in
coarse grain exports in 2022-23, even though the drop in
wheat exports is a minor 1% in the same period. "
As a result, Drewry expects " charter rates to decline
in 2023. "
Bimco added that in 2023 weather conditions could continue
to be a disrupting factor as La NiƱa occurs for a third
consecutive year, affecting mining and agriculture globally.
" Based on the IMF's base case economic forecast and
the market outlook for the three major bulks, we expect
that freight and time charter rates will remain weaker than
those seen during 2021 and the start of 2022, " said the
analyst, adding that rates could increase in the second half
of next year if economic conditions improve.
Bimco added: " The Chinese government will remain a
wildcard, as their economic policy retains the potential to
boost bulk demand. "
For his part, Fray expects the availability of tonnage
to improve in 2023 as congestion eases, pushing freight
rates down.
" This is even after taking into account an uptick in
Chinese import demand on the back of more economic
stimulus and a marginal slowing of the fleet due to
EEXI regulations - factors that have convinced some
other analysts that the dry bulk freight market will be
strong next year, " he said. " In effect we believe that
the negative effect on freight rates of an unwinding of
COVID-related inefficiencies will more than offset a
basket of positive factors. "
Source: Baltic Exchange
http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - January 2023

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - January 2023

World Grain - January 2023 - Intro
World Grain - January 2023 - 1
World Grain - January 2023 - 2
World Grain - January 2023 - 3
World Grain - January 2023 - 4
World Grain - January 2023 - 5
World Grain - January 2023 - 6
World Grain - January 2023 - 7
World Grain - January 2023 - 8
World Grain - January 2023 - 9
World Grain - January 2023 - 10
World Grain - January 2023 - 11
World Grain - January 2023 - 12
World Grain - January 2023 - 13
World Grain - January 2023 - 14
World Grain - January 2023 - 15
World Grain - January 2023 - 16
World Grain - January 2023 - 17
World Grain - January 2023 - 18
World Grain - January 2023 - 19
World Grain - January 2023 - 20
World Grain - January 2023 - 21
World Grain - January 2023 - 22
World Grain - January 2023 - 23
World Grain - January 2023 - 24
World Grain - January 2023 - 25
World Grain - January 2023 - 26
World Grain - January 2023 - 27
World Grain - January 2023 - 28
World Grain - January 2023 - 29
World Grain - January 2023 - 30
World Grain - January 2023 - 31
World Grain - January 2023 - 32
World Grain - January 2023 - 33
World Grain - January 2023 - 34
World Grain - January 2023 - 35
World Grain - January 2023 - 36
World Grain - January 2023 - 37
World Grain - January 2023 - 38
World Grain - January 2023 - 39
World Grain - January 2023 - 40
World Grain - January 2023 - 41
World Grain - January 2023 - 42
World Grain - January 2023 - 43
World Grain - January 2023 - 44
World Grain - January 2023 - 45
World Grain - January 2023 - 46
World Grain - January 2023 - 47
World Grain - January 2023 - 48
World Grain - January 2023 - 49
World Grain - January 2023 - 50
World Grain - January 2023 - 51
World Grain - January 2023 - 52
World Grain - January 2023 - 53
World Grain - January 2023 - 54
World Grain - January 2023 - 55
World Grain - January 2023 - 56
World Grain - January 2023 - 57
World Grain - January 2023 - 58
World Grain - January 2023 - 59
World Grain - January 2023 - 60
World Grain - January 2023 - 61
World Grain - January 2023 - 62
World Grain - January 2023 - 63
World Grain - January 2023 - 64
World Grain - January 2023 - 65
World Grain - January 2023 - 66
World Grain - January 2023 - 67
World Grain - January 2023 - 68
World Grain - January 2023 - 69
World Grain - January 2023 - 70
World Grain - January 2023 - 71
World Grain - January 2023 - 72
World Grain - January 2023 - 73
World Grain - January 2023 - 74
World Grain - January 2023 - 75
World Grain - January 2023 - 76
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-july-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-january-2024
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-december-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-november-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-august-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-july-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-january-2023
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-december-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-november-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-august-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-july-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-january-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-december-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/-world-grain-november-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-august-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-july-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2021_01_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_12_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_11_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_10_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_09_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_08_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_07_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_06_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_15
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com