World Grain - January 2023 - 44

2000, an upsurge in the production of high-value horticulture
crops has been observed, and today, the State of
Maharashtra has emerged as one of the country's largest
producers of fruits and vegetables.
Overall, crop productivity has increased over time
Scientists and researchers project that
a 2.5 to 4.9 degrees Celsius increase in
temperature across the country could
lead to a decrease of 41% to 52% in the
wheat yield, and 32% to 40% in rice.
sector of rainwater stored in the soil as soil moisture.
Severe consecutive droughts experienced in large parts
of Maharashtra over the last two years have considerably
affected the state's agricultural performance and
social fabric in rural areas. It has prompted the highestlevel
state authorities to declare " drought-proofing " of
agriculture a key Maharashtra development priority.
Maharashtra's agriculture is dominated by small and
marginal farmers with an average farm size of 1.44
hectatres. Most of the agricultural production is rainfed,
with less than 20% of the arable land under irrigation.
Farmers' annual production covers two seasons:
kharif crops planted at the onset of the monsoon rainfall
and winter crops. These " ravi " crops are planted
at the beginning of the winter season, harvested in the
springtime. Due to the broad range of agro-climatic
zones and soil types encountered, the state's agricultural
production is fairly diverse. Crop production is
dominated by food grains. Those are cereals (mostly
rice, sorghum or jowar, maize) and pulses (chickpea or
gram, pidgeon pea or tur). For oilseed crops, soybean
remains by far the most important commodity.
The area under cultivation for cereals has declined
since 2000, with a considerable drop in the production
of sorghum (though naturally better adapted to dryer
conditions than other cereals) and a shift from food
grains toward cash crops has been observed, with an
increase in the area for cotton and sugarcane. Since
44
but remains at relatively low levels. One study examined
these numbers in 2013-14, which was a nondrought
year: sorghum 814 kg/hectare; soybeans 1,214
kg/hectare; cotton 361 kg/hectare. Yield gaps for several
key crops are still significant, reflecting the need
for a mix of sector policies and investments to promote
research on climate-adapted varieties, irrigation for a
more efficient on-farm use of water, and extension services
for the adoption of climate-resilient agronomic
practices and technologies - for building climate resilience
in Maharashtra's farming systems.
In 2008, India's national department released the
" National Action Plan on Climate Change " (NAPCC)
and directed each of the 28 states and 8 Union territories
to develop " State Action Plans on Climate
Change " guided by and consistent with the structure
and strategies of the NAPCC. The Maharashtra's government
took a pioneering step toward formulating the
" Maharashtra State Adaptation Action Plan on Climate
Change " (MSAAPCC) by commissioning a comprehensive
vulnerability assessment study that included
the task of generating model-based climate projections
specific to the State's geography. The MSAAPCC
seeks to address the urgent need to integrate climate
change concerns into the State's overall development
strategy, thus assisting in building long-term climate
resilience and enabling adaptation to the likelihood of
risks arising from climate change. The MSAAPCC climate
modeling results for 2030, 2050 and 2070, show
that temperature and rainfall are projected to increase
across Maharashtra, with important regional variations
- resulting, on balance, in potentially significant adverse
impacts on agriculture performance.
Maharashtra's annual mean temperature is projected
to increase by around 1.3° to 1.5°C by the 2030s. The
projected increase in monsoon rainfall by the 2030s
ranges from 13% to 30% across the state. The effects
of longer-term climate trends on agriculture and water,
effectively signaling a shift in climatic conditions, will
be further aggravated by the increased frequency of extreme
climate events. These already are being experienced
in Maharashtra, as illustrated by the three severe
droughts that hit the state over the past five years.
Gordon Feller is a Global Fellow at the Smithsonian Institution/WWIC.
He may be reached at gordon@gordonfeller.com.
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World Grain - January 2023

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