World Grain - January 2023 - 56

FEATURE: EXPERTS: WORLD IS NOT SHORT OF WHEAT
Top: Essa Al-Ghurair (center), chairman of Al-Ghurair
Investments LLC, speaks with millers during a break in the
conference proceedings.
Bottom: Delegates enjoyed networking opportunities on
the trade show floor.
" It's not about a shortage of grain, it's about accessing
it, " he added. " It doesn't make sense to lock
in grain for millers at current prices. Nobody wants to
commit to flour input prices at current market prices. "
Rickmers argued that many of the supply-side restrictions
facing the grain industry were caused by logistics
bottlenecks.
" We were all used to a world of perfect global supply
chains, " he said. " We were relying on regions of the
world that could produce grain very competitively and
efficient supply chains fed deficit countries with grain.
But with disruption of production and supply chains
has come uncertainty. "
He added that even though Ukrainian grain was
finding its way by barge and overland into Europe,
European logistics networks were stretched with rail
companies prioritizing coal transportation for electricity
plants over other commodities.
Basse said that historically low water levels on US
inland shipping networks were reducing the competitiveness,
affordability and reliability of US exports.
Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, a lack of inspectors operating
under the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in
Istanbul, which facilitates the implementation of the Black
Sea Grain Initiative maritime corridor from Ukraine, is
holding up ships attempting to load grain exports.
despite recent geopolitical tensions, recessions and
the interest rate hikes imposed by central bankers
to tackle inflation that had distracted attention from
tackling emissions. If the planet continues to warm,
he said drought-resistant grain varieties would be " a
very important factor as we battle malnutrition. "
Supply chain inefficiencies
What was clear from participants at the conference was
that current wheat supply challenges were not about
production levels. Rowan Barbereau, senior manager,
Bunge, argued that accessibility was the main issue,
not least for those importers who could not diversify
suppliers due to high prices.
56
Wheat availability
Indrek Algro, head of grains, Copenhagen Merchants,
said the Black Sea outlook had been very optimistic
until it had suffered a " perfect storm, " which had hit
forecasts when Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
This had " messed up " logistics networks, created uncertainty
on export corridors, caused financial issues
for buyers of Russian grain due to sanctions, and driven
up inflation.
Even so, he said in late October that Russia was only
" 10% behind on exports so far this year, while exports
from Ukraine had reached over 7 million tonnes by sea
and land in both September and October. "
Basse said despite sanctions, Russia had a bumper
wheat crop, which various speakers estimated would
lead to about 40 million to 50 million tonnes in exports
this season. However, Russian troop mobilization had
impacted labor supply, which could impair planting
and harvesting operations in the future.
Algro said that even with a war raging, Ukrainian
farmers had managed to complete winter sowings
January 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2023

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