World Grain - January 2023 - 66

CONCERNS
about dryness in US Midwest
Historic trends suggest spring could be drier than normal
by Drew Lerner
P
recipitation in the US Midwest in the last quarter
of 2022 was lighter than usual and the trend
was expected to prevail during a fair amount of
January. Enough rain and snow will fall in January
and during the balance of winter to maintain or improve
topsoil moisture, but greater precipitation will be
needed to eliminate moisture deficits from the past few
months, especially when considering the potential for
lighter-than-usual spring precipitation, which is advertised
for many areas from the central Gulf of Mexico
Coast region into the eastern Midwest.
The Midwest has seen less-than-average precipitation
the past few months. The driest areas of the Midwest
are in eastern Indiana and western Ohio where 50% of
normal precipitation fell in the last 90 days and only
25% in the past 30 days. The rest of the Midwest experienced
precipitation that was 75% to 90% of normal
for the same period ended Dec. 31, 2022. Conditions
in the upper Midwest and northern Plains were notably
wetter while the west-central and southwestern US
Plains were drier.
Soil moisture is rated favorably across the Midwest for
this time of year, despite the poor precipitation distribution
in recent months. The primary reason for this is the seasonably
cooler temperature tendency at this time of year.
Precipitation that falls in the cool season usually stays in
the soil for much longer because of low evaporation rates.
It is normal to see soil moisture improve in these areas
during the late autumn and winter, but this year's need for
more moisture may be higher than usual because of an
atmospheric trend that favors less-than-usual precipitation
during the March through May period.
Precipitation is expected to fall across the Midwest
during the next few weeks, but the resulting amounts
are unlikely to be significant enough to counter the
below-average precipitation noted in recent months.
Runoff may increase, but without major storm systems
impacting the region the odds are high that the ground
66
will stay moist while river and stream flows continue
lower than usual.
Concern has been rising over the potential for lighterthan-usual
precipitation during the spring of 2023 from
the central Gulf of Mexico coast region northward into
a part of the eastern Midwest due to a repeating cycle in
the atmosphere that will be playing out in 2023. The lunar
cycle work conducted by the late Dr. Daly reveals a pattern
of repetition that appears amidst a chaotic atmosphere
full of seemingly disorganized random weather events
all intertwined. His work reveals a pattern of similarity
in the upper atmosphere. Occasionally the repeating pattern
can be reflected in surface weather observations, but
quite often the pattern becomes washed out or too vague
to be used purely as a precipitation or temperature indicator.
However, the cycle has managed a high degree of
similarity in recent years at 18-year intervals (see graphic,
page 67).
Evidence from this trend suggests this coming spring
may be drier biased across the eastern Midwest and
central Gulf of Mexico coast states. Observing the 18year
cycle anomalies for this region, the midwestern
states largely have seen below-average precipitation
during the March through May period five out six times
this 18-year cycle has occurred. The only year of exception
was 1933 and it was an anomalous year of its
own with abundant precipitation occurring while most
other years were drier biased. If 2023 follows the same
pattern as 2005, 1987, 1969, 1951 and 1915, there is
likely to be lighter-than-usual spring precipitation.
The data only reveals a pattern of consistency in
below-average precipitation in the eastern Midwest
and central Gulf of Mexico coast states. That does not
mean drought, although precipitation this winter must
be sufficient to adequately prepare the region's soil for
the coming lighter-than-usual precipitation. The same
18-year weather cycle also suggests greater-than-usual
precipitation in a part of hard red winter wheat country
January 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2023

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