World Grain - January 2025 - 30

What's in store for grain shippers in
2025?
Continued geopolitical tensions, shifting trade dynamics
and bulk carrier fleet expansion anticipated
by Mike King
F
or much of the last year, grain freight buyers'
shipping costs have been relatively benign.
The International Grains Council's Grains and
Oilseeds Freight Index, though experiencing some volatility,
has declined - falling from 177 points in midDecember
2023 to just 129 on Dec. 10, 2024.
As always, the supply-demand balance of the overall
bulk carrier fleet has set the tone for grain shippers using
vessels of panamax size and smaller, with grain flows
influencing the market for less-than-capesize vessels on
a seasonal basis. Unlike the fourth quarter of last year,
what has been apparent in the fourth quarter of 2024 is
that the market has turned against vessel owners, with
shipping consultancy MSI reporting that owner expectations
of a seasonal demand spike in late 2024 had been
met " by sharply lower freight rates. "
A significant factor in the downturn has been Brazil's
weaker iron ore exports to China, a key fronthaul trade.
This slump impacted capesize freight rates, which in
turn influenced the broader market for bulk carriers,
slowing the market as 2024 drew to a close.
2025 in focus
Looking to 2025, the bulk carrier market's supplydemand
dynamics appear relatively stable. Unlike the
container sector's rampant ordering of new vessels,
bulk carrier owners have exercised caution, resulting
30
in modest fleet expansion. Around 35 million dwt of
new dry bulk tonnage is scheduled for completion next
year, though MSI estimates that shipyard slippage will
reduce this to just under 30 million dwt.
On the scrapping side, MSI anticipates a modest
uptick, with just under 10 million dwt removed from
service. This translates to a net fleet capacity increase
of 20 million dwt, or 2.4% year-on-year fleet growth.
Ordinarily, such sluggish fleet growth would signal an
uptick in shipping costs. However, the demand side of
the equation is projected to remain weak, with MSI forecasting
a mere 0.2% year-on-year growth in demand.
Will Fray, director at MSI, highlighted some bright
demand spots within specific commodities and routes.
" There are some pockets of strength for some commodities,
for example, bauxite, for which we anticipate
an 8% year-on-year increase, and some routes, for example,
West African iron ore exports to China, " he said.
" For the grains trade in particular, we are reasonably
positive at 2.7% year over year. But the overall message
is that the economic fundamentals underpinning the dry
bulk trade have weakened in 2024 and will remain weak
(or indeed weaken further) in 2025. "
Disruptors to watch
However, in an era of heightened geopolitical strife and
severe climatic events, risk is manifest, especially for
January 2025 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
©Faraways-stock.adobe.com
http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - January 2025

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - January 2025

World Grain - January 2025 - Intro
World Grain - January 2025 - 1
World Grain - January 2025 - 2
World Grain - January 2025 - 3
World Grain - January 2025 - 4
World Grain - January 2025 - 5
World Grain - January 2025 - 6
World Grain - January 2025 - 7
World Grain - January 2025 - 8
World Grain - January 2025 - 9
World Grain - January 2025 - 10
World Grain - January 2025 - 11
World Grain - January 2025 - 12
World Grain - January 2025 - 13
World Grain - January 2025 - 14
World Grain - January 2025 - 15
World Grain - January 2025 - 16
World Grain - January 2025 - 17
World Grain - January 2025 - 18
World Grain - January 2025 - 19
World Grain - January 2025 - 20
World Grain - January 2025 - 21
World Grain - January 2025 - 22
World Grain - January 2025 - 23
World Grain - January 2025 - 24
World Grain - January 2025 - 25
World Grain - January 2025 - 26
World Grain - January 2025 - 27
World Grain - January 2025 - 28
World Grain - January 2025 - 29
World Grain - January 2025 - 30
World Grain - January 2025 - 31
World Grain - January 2025 - 32
World Grain - January 2025 - 33
World Grain - January 2025 - 34
World Grain - January 2025 - 35
World Grain - January 2025 - 36
World Grain - January 2025 - 37
World Grain - January 2025 - 38
World Grain - January 2025 - 39
World Grain - January 2025 - 40
World Grain - January 2025 - 41
World Grain - January 2025 - 42
World Grain - January 2025 - 43
World Grain - January 2025 - 44
World Grain - January 2025 - 45
World Grain - January 2025 - 46
World Grain - January 2025 - 47
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World Grain - January 2025 - 49
World Grain - January 2025 - 50
World Grain - January 2025 - 51
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World Grain - January 2025 - 53
World Grain - January 2025 - 54
World Grain - January 2025 - 55
World Grain - January 2025 - 56
World Grain - January 2025 - 57
World Grain - January 2025 - 58
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World Grain - January 2025 - 61
World Grain - January 2025 - 62
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World Grain - January 2025 - 64
World Grain - January 2025 - 65
World Grain - January 2025 - 66
World Grain - January 2025 - 67
World Grain - January 2025 - 68
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2022
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-january-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-december-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/-world-grain-november-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2021
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