World Grain - January 2025 - 34
lines two demand scenarios in 2025 and 2026. Both
assume ships will return to the Red Sea and both also
predict that bulk shipping rates will fall. In its base
scenario, Bimco assumes that ships will return to
Red Sea and Suez Canal routings in 2025, whereas
the alternative scenario assumes this will only happen
in 2026.
" In both scenarios, the supply/demand balance will
be weaker in 2026 than in 2024, " Gouveia said. " In the
base scenario, the balance will significantly weaken in
2025 as demand for ships falls 0.5% to 1.5% but grows
2% to 3% in 2026. In the alternative scenario, the market
weakens more gradually as demand grows 0.5% to
1.5% in 2025 and up to 1% in 2026. Supply is forecast
to grow by 2% to 3% in both 2025 and 2026 regardless
of scenario.
" We assume that in either scenario, ships will have
fully returned to the Red Sea in all of 2026. Should the
attacks persist for longer, the dry bulk market will be
stronger than forecast. However, even then, the 2026
market is expected to be weaker than in 2024. "
As the supply/demand balance weakens, the expectation
is that freight rates will do the same.
" A significant decrease is expected once ships
are allowed to return to the Red Sea, " Gouveia said.
" Rates may weaken the most for panamax ships amid
high fleet growth and a weakening in coal shipments.
Conversely, capesize freight rates could be the most resilient
due to low fleet growth. "
Return of tariff tensions?
Of course, US exporters will face their own specific
challenges. Early in 2025, a new range of import tariffs
from the Trump administration on imports from
34
Grains trade in perspective
Global grain trade reached a new record in
2023-24 but is expected to drop sharply in
the current season due to reduced import
requirements in Asia and Europe. The International
Grains Council (IGC) forecasts world
trade at 419 million tonnes (July/June), an 8%
year-on-year decline.
For wheat, the trade contraction - 18
million tonnes year on year - is linked to
smaller EU imports due to reduced surpluses
in Ukraine. Domestic availability and import
restrictions are expected to limit purchases
by Turkey and Pakistan, while adequate supplies
will cap demand in Iraq, Saudi Arabia
and China. Similarly, global maize trade is
forecast to drop by 14 million tonnes, to 181
million tonnes.
" The drop is almost wholly tied to much
smaller Chinese imports, with purchases contained
by ample port stocks, soft local prices
and ongoing efforts to reduce third-country
purchases, " said IGC economists in response
to questions from World Grain. " In contrast,
imports by the EU and Mexico will remain
elevated amid drought-related shortfalls in
production. "
Soybean trade is forecast to increase
slightly to 180 million tonnes, with higher
shipments to China and other Asian destinations
expected.
January 2025 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2025
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - January 2025
World Grain - January 2025 - Intro
World Grain - January 2025 - 1
World Grain - January 2025 - 2
World Grain - January 2025 - 3
World Grain - January 2025 - 4
World Grain - January 2025 - 5
World Grain - January 2025 - 6
World Grain - January 2025 - 7
World Grain - January 2025 - 8
World Grain - January 2025 - 9
World Grain - January 2025 - 10
World Grain - January 2025 - 11
World Grain - January 2025 - 12
World Grain - January 2025 - 13
World Grain - January 2025 - 14
World Grain - January 2025 - 15
World Grain - January 2025 - 16
World Grain - January 2025 - 17
World Grain - January 2025 - 18
World Grain - January 2025 - 19
World Grain - January 2025 - 20
World Grain - January 2025 - 21
World Grain - January 2025 - 22
World Grain - January 2025 - 23
World Grain - January 2025 - 24
World Grain - January 2025 - 25
World Grain - January 2025 - 26
World Grain - January 2025 - 27
World Grain - January 2025 - 28
World Grain - January 2025 - 29
World Grain - January 2025 - 30
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World Grain - January 2025 - 36
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