World Grain - January 2025 - 50

Challenges in global trade
Turkey's decision to ban wheat imports earlier
this year was deemed worthy of a full panel session
due to its impact on wheat demand and the
milling market. Turkey has imported around 10
million tonnes of wheat each year over the past
five years, making it one of the world's largest
importers. It is also a major exporter of flour and
pasta.
The aim of the wheat import ban, the future of
which was being finalized as World Grain went
to press, was to protect Turkey's domestic wheat
producers from global prices that Dan Basse,
president and founder of AgResource Co., said
had now fallen to five-year lows.
Panelists noted that Turkey's likely dip in
its flour exports would create opportunities for
competitor millers in African markets. However,
the reduced demand for Black Sea wheat is adding
pressure to an already oversupplied global
market.
Black Sea and beyond
The Black Sea region, which produces 20% of
the world's wheat (excluding China) and accounts
for 30% of global exports, remains a critical
player in the grain trade. Indrek Aigro, head
of grains at Copenhagen Merchants, said wheat
under production in the region had declined by
some 9 million tonnes over the last year, mostly
due to Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania
" performing relatively well. "
This will result in an 11-million-to-12-millionTop:
Bühler's booth on the expo floor was buzzing
with activity throughout the IAOM MEA Conference
in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Bottom: Sven
Mattutat, left, and Normal Loop, were among those
representing Mühlenchemie at the conference.
its latest technologies for grain handling equipment
like ship unloaders and loaders to a " huge potential "
regional market, as customers increasingly demand
sustainable and energy-efficient solutions. To meet this
demand, he said Neuero has made significant improvements
to its drive technology and is using carbon fiber
components to reduce power consumption and improve
reliability.
Roberto Reggianini, area manager, Ocrim, said the
Middle East and African market is strategically important
for the company, with Saudi Arabia one of its biggest
markets and plans to open a new office in Dubai
moving forward. Africa will be " one of the fast-growing
markets " in the future, though he acknowledged
Ocrim faced price-based competition.
50
tonne decline in exports this year, although this could
rise to 15 million tonnes. The main feature of Russian
exports over the last year has been the emergence of new
sales destinations.
With lower demand from Turkey, Russian exporters
are penetrating traditional EU destinations, including
western Africa plus Morocco in the north, said Aigro.
Another growing market for Russia is Latin America,
where it now exports 2.5 million tonnes per year.
Volumes are likely to grow in the future as a Donald
Trump presidency in the United States alters the geopolitical
landscape and increases the ties between
BRICS nations.
" We see and believe that (Russia is) able to build
up that market share to even 5 million or 8 million
tonnes in the future within the BRICS framework
with potential trade wars coming up with a new
presidency in the US, " he said.
" The wind is blowing in that direction and the
logistics work quite well because Russian wheat is
not only coming out of the Black Sea, but there is
January 2025 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2025

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