World Grain - January 2025 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR
War's impact on wheat
(and vice-versa)
T
o understand the present, we must
reflect on the past. In his book,
" War and Wheat: Navigating Markets
During Global Conflict, " Australian
author Dennis Voznesenski explains how
developments in the first two world wars
impacted global wheat trade, input availability,
production and the ability to maintain
adequate reserves.
The first 100 pages of this well-researched
book analyze not only how
wheat production and trade were impacted,
but how wheat was a chess piece
of sorts among the warring nations. The
parallels of what occurred in those wars
and how today's Russia-Ukraine conflict
is unfolding are startling. Russia, the instigator
in this current war and traditionally
among the largest producers and exporters
of wheat, has made no secret that it
covets Ukraine's vast amounts of arable
land, often called " the breadbasket of the
world, " as well as its dynamic port system
that efficiently ships grain abroad.
Russia and its large wheat supply was
targeted in the first two wars by Germany,
which wanted to ensure food security
for its citizens to maintain order. In both
cases, Germany was unable to gain control
of Russia's wheat supply, dealing a
significant blow to its war efforts. Often
taken for granted during times of peace,
wheat becomes vitally important during
the chaos and uncertainty of war. Nothing
threatens a government's control over its
people more than food being unavailable
or unaffordable. The Arab Spring protests
in the Middle East during the early 2010s
were a recent example of this.
War and Wheat is written mostly from
an Australian perspective, identifying the
country's unique challenges due to its
geographic isolation and relatively small
population. It's noteworthy that the last
paragraph of the book is a quote from
Australian author J.M. Harcourt: " The
curse of Australia is procrastination. We
6
debate things in parliament eternally, but
we hardly ever do anything. I am afraid
the awakening will be a rude one, " Harcourt
wrote in 1938, just months before
the start of World War II. Voznesenski
says Harcourt's words are as relevant today
as they were 86 years ago. He writes
in the book's closing chapter that Australia
must act with urgency to keep its grain
industry from collapsing should the conflict
in the Black Sea region escalate into
World War III.
In the first two wars, many countries
saw their grain stockpiles dwindle to dangerously
low levels. Australia had the opposite
problem. Because the wars reduced
the ability to ship grain safely and altered
traditional trade patterns, Australia was
faced with an oversupply of wheat, which
led to extremely low prices and threatened
the livelihoods of its farmers. Australia,
which exports about 70% of its wheat
crop annually, would likely face a similar
situation should an extended disturbance
in trade or demand occur today. Thus,
Voznesenski implores the Australian government
to heed Harcourt's warning and
act quickly to incentivize the production
of wheat-based biofuels and expand the
grain animal feed sector.
War and Wheat is a must-read for anyone
associated with the grain industry. The
author examines the similarities and differences
between the previous world wars
with today's RussiaUkraine
battle, noting
there are lessons to be
learned. As Mark Twain
once said: " History
doesn't repeat itself, but
it often rhymes. "
The book is available at: www.amazon.
com/War-Wheat-Navigating-marketsconflict/dp/1763580938
Arvin
Donley
Editor
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January 2025 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
Brian Peterman
Becky White
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