World Grain - July 2021 - 18

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
WHEAT
Prices soften as crop outlook improves
by Chris Lyddon
With harvest approaching in Northern Hemisphere growing
regions and crop estimates being revised up as weather remains
largely favorable, wheat has become cheaper recently.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its June
10 Grain: World Markets and Trade report that " wheat prices
fell across most major exporting countries since last month's
WASDE (the USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates report) with improving winter wheat conditions
in several key producing regions. "
Russian export quotes have declined as the winter wheat
harvest nears and remained flat since the new floating taxes
became effective June 2, the USDA said, noting that its quotes
are currently the most competitive.
" Argentine quotes have also declined slightly as planting is
underway, " the report said. " US quotes declined after the last
WASDE but have rebounded partially over the past week with
some rains at harvest time. "
The USDA also reported a slight decline in Australian prices,
limited because of robust offshore demand. There was a
decline described as marginal in EU prices with old crop supplies
tight, but favorable prospects for the new crop.
" In contrast, quotes from Canada have risen sharply over
the past couple of weeks with a smaller expected crop, " the
USDA said.
The USDA issued an updated WASDE report on June 11
that put the US 2021-22 wheat crop at 51.66 million tonnes,
up from its May forecast of 50.95 million, with " increased
hard red winter and soft red winter production more than offsetting
lower white winter production. "
" The global wheat outlook for 2021-22 is for larger supplies,
higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks, " the
USDA said. " Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million
tonnes to 1.087.9 billion, mainly on higher production for the
EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world production is projected at a
record 794.4 million. "
The USDA's previous forecast for the world's wheat crop
was 788.98 million tonnes.
" The EU is raised 3.5 million tonnes to 137.5 million on
recent beneficial precipitation across Northern and Central
Europe, " the USDA said. " The largest increases are for Germany,
France and Romania. "
18
Monthly wheat price
(in US dollars per tonne)
100
150
200
250
300
50
Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21
(US), No. 1, hard red winter, ordinary protein, export price
delivered at the US Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment.
The USDA also increased its forecast for Russia's wheat
production by 1 million tonnes to a record 86 million.
" Winter wheat production is increased on a higher yield
with widespread spring rainfall across Western Russia, while
spring wheat is raised on higher area, based on Agricultural
Ministry estimates, " the USDA said.
" The USDA added 500,000 tonnes to its forecast for
Ukraine, bringing it to 29.5 million tonnes, another record,
because of " favorable weather conditions. "
The USDA also is expecting record wheat consumption,
having increased its forecast by 2.4 million tonnes to a record
791.1 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use by the
EU and Russia, because of increased supplies. Trade in 202122
is also forecast at a record 203.2 million tonnes, a revision
upwards of 800,000 tonnes in increased exports by Ukraine
and India.
In its Grain Market Report at the end of May, the International
Grains Council (IGC) said that " with day-to-day movements
often linked to changes in other commodities, especially
corn, world wheat export prices posted further gains in the
first part of May, but retreated later in the month, " reporting a
5% fall since its previous report, a month earlier.
" Activity was somewhat volatile, often responding to
changeable weather forecasts, " the IGC said. " Worries about
dryness for crops in the US, Europe and the Black Sea region
provided initial support, but concerns were partly allayed by
widespread rains as the month progressed. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to
worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, email reprints@sosland.com.
July 2021 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: USDA, World Bank
http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - July 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2021

World Grain - July 2021 - Intro
World Grain - July 2021 - 1
World Grain - July 2021 - 2
World Grain - July 2021 - 3
World Grain - July 2021 - 4
World Grain - July 2021 - 5
World Grain - July 2021 - 6
World Grain - July 2021 - 7
World Grain - July 2021 - 8
World Grain - July 2021 - 9
World Grain - July 2021 - 10
World Grain - July 2021 - 11
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