World Grain - July 2024 - 16

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
OILSEEDS
Bearish prospects weigh on soybeans
by Chris Lyddon
The prospect of ample supplies, despite weather problems in
some producing regions, is pushing oilseeds prices lower.
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department
of Agriculture said on June 12 in its Oilseeds: World
Markets and Trade report that the US soybean oil price premium
compared to other major exporters has declined, and
the United States is expected to be a net soybean oil exporter
in 2024-25.
" The price premium in the past couple of years was driven
by higher domestic demand for soybean oil in biofuel production,
particularly for increased renewable diesel production
headed to the California market, " the FAS said. " Soybean
prices for major exporters declined since the last WASDE report
on improved US plantings and ample global supply projections.
Soybean meal prices also declined following weaker
soybean prices and ample supplies from the major meal producers. "
FAS
also reported " significant appreciation in South America
soybean oil prices, primarily driven by strong domestic
demand in Brazil, " while " weather‐related concerns with the
European rapeseed crop also boosted vegetable oil prices. "
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
report, published June 12, the USDA put global oilseeds production
for 2024-25 at 685.8 million tonnes, down 1.3 million
from its May forecast of 687.1 million, " mainly on lower
rapeseed production for Australia and the European Union. " It
put the 2023-24 world oilseed crop at 656.8 million.
" Rapeseed production is lowered for Australia on lower
harvested area while production in the EU is lowered on a
reduced yield for France, " the FAS said.
In its monthly Food Price Index, released June 7, the United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said world vegetable
oil prices were down 2.4% in May compared with
April, but still 7.7% above their May 2023 level. It described
Soybeans monthly price
(in US dollars per tonne)
100
200
300
400
500
600
the month-on-month fall as " mostly driven by lower palm oil
quotations, more than offsetting higher soy, rapeseed and sunflower
oil prices. "
The USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) detailed
rapeseed supply in its June 14 Oil Crops Outlook report.
" The EU rapeseed production is reduced this month by
(300,000) tonnes, to 18.8 million tonnes, on lower yield, " it
said. " The EU's rapeseed yield is estimated at 3.21 tonnes per
hectare, down 1% from last month. By the end of May, most
of the rapeseed crop was ahead of normal development and
was entering the pod-filling stage. Dry weather in Hungary
and Romania, which began in the middle of January and persisted
throughout May, is expected to affect pod fill development. "
Excessive
rainfall in France and Germany is expected to
hinder the yield potential, the ERS said.
" The harvested area is estimated at 5.9 million hectares, unchanged
from last month but down 6% from last year, " it said.
Australia's rapeseed production forecast for MY 2024-25
is reduced by 1 million tonnes to 5.5 million tonnes on lower
area, the ERS said.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to
worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, email reprints@sosland.com.
16
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Source: World Bank, Photo: ©Adisak-stock.adobe.com
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World Grain - July 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2024

World Grain - July 2024 - Intro
World Grain - July 2024 - 1
World Grain - July 2024 - 2
World Grain - July 2024 - 3
World Grain - July 2024 - 4
World Grain - July 2024 - 5
World Grain - July 2024 - 6
World Grain - July 2024 - 7
World Grain - July 2024 - 8
World Grain - July 2024 - 9
World Grain - July 2024 - 10
World Grain - July 2024 - 11
World Grain - July 2024 - 12
World Grain - July 2024 - 13
World Grain - July 2024 - 14
World Grain - July 2024 - 15
World Grain - July 2024 - 16
World Grain - July 2024 - 17
World Grain - July 2024 - 18
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World Grain - July 2024 - 20
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